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Since natural gas has become a new star in China’s energy mix, a reliable estimation of the price elasticity of natural gas demand is crucial if we are to understand how energy price changes affect natural gas consumption. In this paper, we conduct a Meta-regression analysis to quantitatively synthesize empirical estimates of the price elasticity of natural gas demand reported in previous studies, provide true underlying values, and explain the heterogeneity of the aforementioned estimates. The Fixed-effects model and ordinary least squares (OLS) are applied to estimate the regression models. As a result, this paper reports a mean elasticity of −1.521 and 0.410 for the short- and long-run own-price elasticity, separately; −0.762 and 0.008 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-coal to natural gas, respectively; 2.122 and 1.884 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-electricity to natural gas, separately; and 2.267 and 1.275 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-oil to natural gas, respectively. Our results suggest that natural gas consumption increases with the decrease of its own and coal prices in the short term and rise of electricity and oil prices. It also shows that almost all heterogeneity can be explained by the type of data, sample period, models of analysis, geographical region, and type of consumer.

The transportation sector is a crucial source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the degree of its low-carbon transformation is closely related to the achievement of China’s carbon neutrality. Based on high-frequency passenger vehicle sales data and motor vehicle real-time monitoring big data, we developed a low-carbon transition planning model of China road transport (CRT-LCTP) to explore the pathways toward carbon neutrality. The study found that although the number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) increased four times from 2016 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of road traffic emissions was still as high as 20.5%. The current transportation electrification may only reduce 0.6% of the total emissions in this sector, and it could be increased to 1.4% if the electricity completely came from clean energy. Under the enhanced policy scenario, the transport sector could peak its carbon emissions at around of 2030, with the peak level being 1330.98 Mt. Transportation electrification along could not meet the climate targets in 2060, and the continued inertia of fuel vehicles will slow the path of the road transport toward carbon neutrality, which depends on the forced elimination of fuel vehicles and more substantive decarbonization measures.

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