Avian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks (≤16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly and positively correlated with the number of birds. Small-scale farmers – the overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countries – tend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission.

Background Poultry farming is widely practiced by rural households in Vietnam and the vast majority of domestic birds are kept on small household farms. However, smallholder poultry production is constrained by several issues such as infectious diseases, including avian influenza viruses whose circulation remains a threat to public health. This observational study describes the demographic structure and dynamics of small-scale poultry farms of the Mekong river delta region. Method Fifty three farms were monitored over a 20-month period, with farm sizes, species, age, arrival/departure of poultry, and farm management practices recorded monthly. Results Median flock population sizes were 16 for chickens (IQR: 10–40), 32 for ducks (IQR: 18–101) and 11 for Muscovy ducks (IQR: 7–18); farm size distributions for the three species were heavily right-skewed. Muscovy ducks were kept for long periods and outdoors, while chickens and ducks were farmed indoors or in pens. Ducks had a markedly higher removal rate (broilers: 0.14/week; layer/breeders: 0.05/week) than chickens and Muscovy ducks (broilers: 0.07/week; layer/breeders: 0.01–0.02/week) and a higher degree of specialization resulting in a substantially shorter life span. The rate of mortality due to disease did not differ much among species, with birds being less likely to die from disease at older ages, but frequency of disease symptoms differed by species. Time series of disease-associated mortality were correlated with population size for Muscovy ducks (Kendall’s coefficient τ = 0.49, p -value < 0.01) and with frequency of outdoor grazing for ducks (τ = 0.33, p-value = 0.05). Conclusion The study highlights some challenges to disease control in small-scale multispecies poultry farms. The rate of interspecific contact and overlap between flocks of different ages is high, making small-scale farms a suitable environment for pathogens circulation. Muscovy ducks are farmed outdoors with little investment in biosecurity and few inter-farm movements. Ducks and chickens are more at-risk of introduction of pathogens through movements of birds from one farm to another. Ducks are farmed in large flocks with high turnover and, as a result, are more vulnerable to disease spread and require a higher vaccination coverage to maintain herd immunity. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-019-1949-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Summary (255 words) 25This study describes the demographic structure and dynamics of small scale poultry farms of the 26Mekong river delta region, one of the world's highest-risk regions for avian influenza outbreaks. Muscovy ducks were kept for long periods, in small numbers and outdoors, while chickens and 36 ducks were farmed in larger numbers, indoors or in pens, with more rapid flock turnover. Most 37 chicks were sold young to be fattened on other farms, and broiler and layer ducks had a short 38 production period and higher degree of specialization. The rate of mortality due to disease did not 39 differ much among species, with birds being less likely to die from disease at older ages, but

Background: Subtype H5N1 avian influenza viruses, both high pathogenicity and low pathogenicity, have been enzootic in Vietnam since 2001.  The viruses are readily identified at live bird markets, but virus prevalence on smallholder poultry is typically zero or very low.  If the true direction of the viral transmission chain is farm to market, it is unknown why farm prevalence should be low when market prevalence is moderate to high. Methods: We established a cohort of 50 smallholder poultry farms in Ca Mau province in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam.  From March 2016 to January 2017, we collected naso-pharyngeal and cloacal samples from 156 ducks and 96 chickens.  In addition, 126 environmental samples were collected.  Samples were assayed for H5 subtype influenza by real-time RT-PCR. Results/Discussion: None of the 378 collected samples were positive for H5 influenza.  This is likely to mean that circulation of subtype H5 influenza viruses was low in Ca Mau in 2016.  Detection of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms is necessary to determine the directionality and association between farm prevalence and market prevalence of avian influenza viruses.  Larger farm-level studies should be planned as these will be critical for determining the presence and strength of this association.

Avian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks (≤16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly positively correlated with flock size and farm size, respectively. Small-scale farmersthe overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countriestend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission. One sentence summary:A cohort study of fifty three small-scale poultry farms in southern Vietnam reveals that when outbreaks occur with symptoms similar to highly pathogenic avian influenza, farmers respond by sending their chickens to market early, potentially exacerbating the effects of the outbreak.