No abstract

Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections -the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

Just as the iris of human eye controls the light influx (iris effect), tropical anvil cirrus clouds may regulate the Earth's surface warming by controlling outgoing longwave radiation. This study examines this possible effect with monthly satellite observations such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cirrus fraction, and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System top‐of‐the‐atmosphere radiative fluxes averaged over different tropical domains from March 2000 to October 2014. To confirm that high‐level cirrus is relevant to this study, Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization high cloud observations were also analyzed from June 2006 to December 2015. Our analysis revealed that the increase in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific tends to concentrate convective cloud systems. This concentration effect very likely induces the significant reduction of both stratiform rain rate and cirrus fraction, without appreciable change in the convective rain rate. This reduction of stratiform rain rate and cirrus fraction cannot be found over its subregion or the tropical eastern Pacific, where the concentration effect of anvil cirrus is weak. Consistently, over the tropical western Pacific, the higher ratio of convective rain rate to total rain rate (i.e., precipitation efficiency) significantly correlates with warmer sea surface temperature and lower cirrus fraction. The reduced cirrus eventually increased outgoing longwave radiation to a greater degree than absorbed solar radiation. Finally, the negative relationship between precipitation efficiency and cirrus fraction tends to correspond to a low global equilibrium climate sensitivity in the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This suggests that tropical anvil cirrus clouds exert a negative climate feedback in strong association with precipitation efficiency.

Understanding predator–prey interactions is a major challenge in ecological studies. In particular, the accurate identification of prey is a fundamental requirement in elucidating food-web structure. This study took a molecular approach in determining the species identity of consumed prey items of a freshwater carnivorous fish (largemouth bass, Micropterus salmoides), according to their size class. Thirty randomly selected gut samples were categorized into three size classes, based on the total length of the bass. Using the universal primer for the mtDNA cytochrome oxidase I (COI) region, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification was performed on unidentified gut contents and then sequenced after cloning. Two gut samples were completely empty, and DNA materials from 27 of 28 gut samples were successfully amplified by PCR (success rate: 96.4%). Sequence database navigation yielded a total of 308 clones, containing DNA from 26 prey items. They comprised four phyla, including seven classes, 12 orders, and 12 families based on BLAST and BOLD database searches. The results indicate that largemouth bass show selective preferences in prey item consumption as they mature. These results corroborate a hypothesis, presence of ontogenetic diet shift, derived through other methodological approaches. Despite the practical limitations inherent in DNA barcoding analysis, high-resolution (i.e., species level) identification was possible, and the predation patterns of predators of different sizes were identifiable. The utilization of this method is strongly recommended for determining specific predator–prey relationships in complex freshwater ecosystems.