No abstract

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2°C above present (approximately 2.7°C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m 3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2°C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.F reshwater is one of the most vital natural resources of the planet. The quantities that humans need for drinking and sanitation are relatively small, and the fact that these basic needs are not satisfied for many people today is primarily a matter of access to, and quality of, available water resources (1). Much larger quantities of water are required for many other purposes, most importantly irrigated agriculture, but also for industrial use, in particular for hydropower and the cooling of thermoelectric power plants (2, 3). These activities critically depend on a sufficient amount of freshwater that can be withdrawn from rivers, lakes, and groundwater aquifers. Whereas scarcity of freshwater resources already constrains development and societal well-being in many countries (4, 5), the expected growth of global population over the coming decades, together with growing economic prosperity, will increase water demand and thus aggravate these problems (6-8).Climate change poses an additional threat to water security because changes in precipitation and other climatic variables may lead to significant changes in water supply in many regions (6-11). The effect of climate change on water resources is, however, uncertain for a number of reasons. Climate model projections, although rather ...

[1] Current global river routing models do not represent floodplain inundation dynamics realistically because the storage and movement of surface waters are regulated by small-scale topography rather than the commonly used spatial resolution of global models. In this study, we propose a new global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, which explicitly parameterizes the subgrid-scale topography of a floodplain, thus describing floodplain inundation dynamics. The relationship between water storage, water level, and flooded area in the model is decided on the basis of the subgrid-scale topographic parameters based on 1 km resolution digital elevation model. Horizontal water transport is calculated with a diffusive wave equation, which realizes the backwater effect in flat river basins. A set of global-scale river flow simulations demonstrated an improved predictability of daily-scale river discharge in many major world rivers by incorporating the floodplain inundation dynamics. Detailed analysis of the simulated results for the Amazon River suggested that introduction of the diffusive wave equation is essential for simulating water surface elevation realistically. The simulated spatiotemporal variation of the flooded area in the Amazon basin showed a good correlation with satellite observations, especially when the backwater effect was considered. The improved predictability for daily river discharge, water surface elevation, and inundated areas by the proposed model will promote climate system studies and water resource assessments.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by biascorrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO 2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.climate impact | global hydrology | evaporation | global warming T he global water cycle is expected to change over the 21st century due to the combined effects of climate change and increasing human intervention. In a warmer world, the waterholding capacity of the atmosphere will increase, resulting in a change in the frequency of precipitation extremes, increased evaporation and dry periods (1), and intensification of droughts (2). This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (3), associated with a reduction in water availability at continental (4, 5) and global scales (6, 7). Because such changes have potentially very serious implications in some regions of the world, identifying areas where there is agreement in the direction and magnitude of changes in drought characteristics (hotspots) in response to climate change is essential information for water resource management aimed at ensuring water security in a changing climate.Most GCMs, however, are not able to reproduce the fine-scale processes governing terrestrial hydrology (and hence runoff) and suffer from systematic biases (8). As land-atmospheric feedbacks are not yet fully understood and reproduced by global models (9), and because full coupling ...

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies