In this paper, we formulated a new nine (9) compartmental mathematical model to have better understanding of parameters that influence the dynamical spread of Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interacting with Tuberculosis (TB) in a population. The model is analyzed for all the parameters responsible for the disease spread in order to find the most sensitive parameters out of all. Sub models of HIV and TB only were considered first, followed by the full HIV-TB co-infection model. Stability of HIV model only, TB model only and full model of HIV-TB co-infection were analyzed for the existence of the disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic Reproduction Number (R0) was obtained using next generation matrix method (NGM), and it has been shown that the disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 > 1and unstable whenever this threshold exceeds unity. i.e.. R0 > 1 The relative sensitivity solutions of the model with respect to each of the parameters is calculated, Parameters are grouped into two categories: sensitive parameters and insensitive parameters. Numerical simulation was carried out by maple software using Runge-kunta method, to show the effect of each parameter on the dynamical spread of HIV-TB co-infection, i.e. detection of infected undetected individuals plays a vital role, it decreases infected undetected individuals. Also, increased in effective contact rate has a pronounced effect on the total population; it decreases susceptible individuals and increases the infected individuals. However, effective contact rate needs to be very low in order to guaranteed disease free environment.
In this study, the diarrhoea model is developed based on basic mathematical modelling techniques leading to a system (five compartmental model) of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Mathematical analysis of the model is then carried out on the uniqueness and existence of the model to know the region where the model is epidemiologically feasible. The equilibrium points of the model and the stability of the disease-free state were also derived by finding the reproduction number. We then progressed to running a global sensitivity analysis on the reproduction number with respect to all the parameters in it, and four (4) parameters were found sensitive. The work was concluded with numerical simulations on Maple 18 using Runge-Kutta method of order four (4) where the values of six (6) parameters present in the model were each varied successively while all other parameters were held constant so as to know the behaviour and effect of the varied parameter on how diarrhoea spreads in the population. The results from the sensitivity analysis and simulations were found to be in sync.
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) co-existing with Tuberculosis (TB) in individuals remains a major global health challenges, with an estimated 1.4 million patients worldwide. These two diseases are enormous public health burden, and unfortunately, not much has been done in terms of modeling the dynamics of HIV-TB co-infection at a population level. We formulated new fifteen (15) compartmental models to gain more insight into the effect of treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV- TB co-infection. Sub models of HIV and TB only were considered first, followed by the full HIV-TB co-infection model. Existence and uniqueness of HIV and TB only model were analyzed quantitatively, and we shown that HIV model only and TB only model have solutions, moreover, the solutions are unique. Stability of HIV model only, TB model only and full model of HIV-TB co-infection were analyzed for the existence of the disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number () was analyzed, using next generation matrix method (NGM), and it has been shown that the disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever and unstable whenever this threshold exceeds unity. i.e., Numerical simulation was carried out by maple software using differential transformation method, to show the effect of treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV-TB co-infection. Significantly, all the results obtained from this research show the importance of treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV-TB co-infection. Detection rate of infected undetected individuals reduce the spread of HIV-TB co-infections.
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