Existing literature assumes that the order and timing of analysts' earnings forecasts are determined exogenously. However, analysts choose when to issue their forecasts. This study develops a model that endogenizes the timing decision of analysts and analyzes their equilibrium timing strategies. In the model, analysts face a trade-off between the timeliness and the precision of their forecasts. The model introduces a timing game with two analysts, derives and analyzes its unique pure strategies equilibrium, and provides new empirical predictions about the precision and timing of analysts' forecasts. The equilibrium has one of two patterns: either the times of the analysts' forecasts cluster, or there is a separation in the times of the forecasts. The less informed and less similar the analysts are, the more likely it is that they forecast at different points in time. All else equal, analysts with a higher precision of initial private information tend to forecast earlier, and analysts with a higher learning ability tend to forecast later.
We study a model in which managers' disclosure and investment decisions are both endogenous and managers can manipulate their voluntary reports through (suboptimal) investment, financing, or operating decisions. Managers are privately informed about the value of their firm and have incentives to voluntarily disclose information and manipulate their reports in order to obtain more favorable terms when issuing equity to finance a new profitable investment opportunity. The model shows that treating managers' disclosure and investment decisions both as endogenous and allowing managers to manipulate their voluntary reports yields qualitatively different predictions from when the disclosure and investment decisions are considered separately and managers cannot engage in manipulation. The model predicts that managers' disclosure strategy is sometimes characterized by two distinct nondisclosure intervals (contrary to traditional threshold equilibria of voluntary disclosure models) and that managers with intermediate news sometimes forego the new profitable investment opportunity. As such, the paper highlights the importance of considering the interdependencies between firms' disclosure and investment decisions and provides new empirical predictions.
We study a dynamic model of voluntary disclosure of information by a potentially informed agent. The extant theoretical literature on voluntary disclosure focuses on static models in which an interested party (e.g., a manager of a firm) may privately observe a single piece of private information (e.g., Grossman 1981;Milgrom 1981;Dye 1985;and Jung and Kwon 1988) or dynamic models in which the disclosure timing does not play a role (e.g., Shin 2003Shin , 2006 as the manager's decision is what to disclose but not when to disclose it. Corporate disclosure environments, however, are characterized by multi-period and multi-dimensional flows of information from the firm to the market, where the information asymmetry between the firm and the capital market can be with respect to whether, when, and what relevant information the firm might have learned. For example, firms with ongoing R&D projects can obtain new information about the state of their projects, where the time of information arrival and its content is unobservable to the market. This is common, for example, in pharmaceutical companies that get results of a drug's clinical trial (prior to FDA approval). Such results are not required to be publicly disclosed in a timely manner and investors' beliefs about the result of a drug's clinical trial may have a great effect on the firm's price. The multidimensional nature of the disclosure game (multi-period and multisignal) plays a critical role in shaping the equilibrium; e.g., when deciding whether
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