ObjectivesTo determine whether the European Commission Eurobarometer survey of 27 European Union (EU) member states produces reliable smoking prevalence estimates when compared to national prevalence survey data, and to identify approaches to standardising the measurement of smoking prevalence in the EU.MethodsThis was a direct comparison of questions, sampling methods and smoking prevalence estimates, between the 2006 Eurobarometer study and contemporaneous national surveys. All 27 EU member states were included. Participants were people surveyed in the 2006 Eurobarometer study and in various national surveys in the closest year to 2006 for which data were available. The main outcome measures were the mean and range of differences in prevalence estimates between the Eurobarometer and national surveys.ResultsMost national surveys used similar multistage sampling methods and involved sample sizes of 3000 or more, but the phrasing of the questions used to define smoking, the inclusion or exclusion of occasional smokers, the age ranges of participants and the frequency of national surveys varied substantially between countries. The Eurobarometer study used the same questions in all countries but in sample sizes of 1000, or in 3 countries, 500. Eurobarometer 2006 smoking prevalence estimates were on average 0.37 percentage points higher than those in national surveys, but with a 95% range from −10.49 to +11.23 percentage points. At the extremes, the equivalent national prevalence estimate for Slovakia was 13.0% higher and for the UK 10.0% lower than the Eurobarometer figure.ConclusionsMeasurements of the prevalence of smoking, the biggest avoidable public health threat in the European Union, are highly discrepant within countries between national and European Commission survey estimates. Monitoring national smoking prevalence on a regular basis, using standardised methods in representative population samples, is an urgent priority for the EU.

AimsTo investigate the association between frequency of visiting shops and noticing of tobacco point‐of‐sale (PoS) displays and the development of susceptibility to smoking, or smoking uptake, in secondary school students.DesignTwo surveys of a school based cohort study carried out in 2011 and 2012.SettingsNottinghamshire, UK.ParticipantsA total of 2270 children aged 11–16 years from eight schools in Nottinghamshire.MeasurementsWe investigated changes in susceptibility to smoking and smoking status in relation to frequency of visiting shops and noticing PoS displays and number of tobacco brands recognized, controlling for a range of potential confounders. Susceptibility to smoking was defined using a set of three questions covering intentions to try smoking, to smoke within the next year and likelihood of smoking if a best friend offered a cigarette. For the analysis we used multinomial logistic regression.FindingsAmong non‐susceptible never smokers, noticing PoS displays more frequently was associated independently with an increased risk of becoming susceptible to smoking [adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) = 1.74; 99% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13–2.69], but was not associated with smoking uptake. Recognizing a higher number of brands among non‐susceptible never smokers doubled the risk of becoming susceptible to smoking and of becoming a smoker, but this did not have a significant effect on transition to smoking among susceptible never smokers. Frequency of noticing tobacco PoS displays was not associated significantly with smoking uptake among those who were susceptible never smokers at baseline.ConclusionsNoticing tobacco point‐of‐sale displays more often and recognizing a higher number of tobacco brands is associated with an increased risk of becoming susceptible to smoking among adolescents in the United Kingdom, and recognizing a higher number of brands is associated positively with an increased risk of smoking uptake.

Background and aimPlain packaging of cigarettes appeared in the United Kingdom in July 2016 and was ubiquitous by May 2017. The change coincided with another legislative change, raising the minimum pack size from 10 to 20 cigarettes. Laws imposing plain packaging on cigarette packs remove another promotional route from tobacco companies, but the effect of such laws on brand diversity, pricing and sales volume is unknown. This study aimed to (1) describe and quantify changes in brand diversity, price segmentation and sales volumes and (2) estimate the association between the introduction of plain cigarette packaging and cigarette pricing in the United Kingdom.DesignWe used a natural experiment design to assess the impact of plain packaging legislation on brand diversity and cigarette prices. The data comprised a sample of 76% of sales of cigarettes in the UK between March 2013 and June 2017.SettingUnited Kingdom.MeasurementsCigarette prices, number of brands and products and volumes of sales.FindingsDuring the period analysed, there was a slight decrease in the number of cigarette brands. There was also an initial increase observed in the number of cigarette products, due mainly to an increase in the number of products in packs of fewer than 20 cigarettes sold before July 2016, which was then followed by a rapid decrease in the number of products that coincided with the implementation of the new legislation. Cigarette sales volumes during this period did not deviate from the preceding secular trend, but prices rose substantially. Regression results showed that price per cigarette, regardless of pack size, was 5.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8–5.3] pence higher in plain than in fully branded packs. For packs of 20 cigarettes, price increases were greater in the lower price quintiles, ranging from 2.6 (95% CI = 2.4–2.7) GBP in the lowest to 0.3 (95% CI = 0.3–0.4) GBP per pack in the highest quintile.ConclusionsThe implementation of standardized packaging legislation in the United Kingdom, which included minimum pack sizes of 20, was associated with significant increases overall in the price of manufactured cigarettes, but no clear deviation in the ongoing downward trend in total volume of cigarette sales.