The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Soil seed banks offer plants the possibility to disperse through time. This has implications for population and community dynamics, as recognised by ecological and evolutionary theory. In contrast, the conservation and restoration literature often find seed banks to be depauperate, weedy and without much conservation value or restoration potential. One explanation for these contrasting views might lie in a systematic bias in the sampling of seed banks versus established plant communities. We use the species-area relationship as a tool to assess and compare the per-area species richness and spatial structuring of the diversity of the established plant community versus soil seed banks. To allow this direct comparison we extensively survey the species-area relationship of the vegetation and underlying seed bank of a grassland community across twelve sites spanning regional bioclimatic gradients. We also compile a global dataset of established vegetation and seed banks from published sources. We find that seed banks have consistently higher intercepts and slopes of the relationship, and hence higher diversity at any given spatial scale, than the vegetation both in the field and literature study. This is consistent across habitat types, climate gradients, and biomes. Similarity indices are commonly used to compare vegetation and seed bank, and we find that sampling effort (% of the vegetation area sampled for seed bank) was the strongest predictor of vegetation-seed bank similarity for both the Sørensen (R 2  0.70) and the Raup-Crick (R 2  0.25) index. Our study suggests that the perception that seed banks are intrinsically less diverse than established plant communities has been based more on inadequate sampling than on biological reality. Across a range of ecosystems and climatic settings, we find high diversity in seed banks relative to the established community, suggesting potentially important roles of seed banks in population dynamics and diversity maintenance.

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Summary1. Semi-natural habitats have been shaped by human disturbance regimes for centuries. Spatially and temporally heterogeneous land-use practices, such as cutting, burning, grazing and turf-cutting, have resulted in complex mosaic landscapes that are of high priority for conservation in Europe. Contemporary conservation subjects these systems to management regimes that are generally less diverse, in terms of disturbances and finescale temporal and spatial variability, than traditional land use, but the ecological consequences of these simplifications are unclear. 2. We investigated the interactive effects of fire and grazing on plant species composition and diversity along local environmental (moisture) gradients in coastal heathlands. A replicated series of post-fire successions ( n = 12) was initiated in three heathland habitats and the areas subjected to two grazing regimes. Floristic and environmental data were recorded in permanent plots over a 5-year period. Community data were analysed using multivariate ordination techniques (principal components analysis, partial redundancy analyses, and principal response curves) and generalized linear models. 3. Fire induced strong successional trends in the species composition of the heathlands. These trends differed among heathland habitats, and with grazing. Strong interactions between fire, habitat and grazing implied that the effect of grazing on the successional dynamics differed among habitats. Species diversity decreased in the first year after fire but increased beyond the pre-fire levels during succession. This trend was not affected by local environment or grazing, although there were main effect differences in diversity between environments and grazing regimes. 4. Synthesis and applications . Our results demonstrate that the two management practices do not have simple additive effects within the semi-natural system studied, as grazing created ecological opportunities for additional sets of species, increased variability among habitats, and added complexity to the post-fire successional dynamics. In order to preserve diversity, conservation management should thus aim to preserve the level of complexity of the traditional management regimes, both in terms of the actual disturbances (e.g. fire and grazing) as well as the spatial scales at which they are applied. Further, the considerable change in these effects along the local environmental gradient brings into question the efficiency of general management prescriptions, and indicates that local environmental variability should be taken into account in the conservation of semi-natural habitats.

Abstract. Successional dynamics in plant community assembly may result from both deterministic and stochastic ecological processes. The relative importance of different ecological processes is expected to vary over the successional sequence, between different plant functional groups, and with the disturbance levels and land-use management regimes of the successional systems. We evaluate the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes in bryophyte and vascular plant community assembly after fire in grazed and ungrazed anthropogenic coastal heathlands in Northern Europe. A replicated series of post-fire successions (n = 12) were initiated under grazed and ungrazed conditions, and vegetation data were recorded in permanent plots over 13 years. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to test for deterministic successional patterns in species composition repeated across the replicate successional series and analyses of co-occurrence to evaluate to what extent species respond synchronously along the successional gradient. Change in species co-occurrences over succession indicates stochastic successional dynamics at the species level (i.e., species equivalence), whereas constancy in co-occurrence indicates deterministic dynamics (successional niche differentiation). The RDA shows high and deterministic vascular plant community compositional change, especially early in succession. Co-occurrence analyses indicate stochastic species-level dynamics the first two years, which then give way to more deterministic replacements. Grazed and ungrazed successions are similar, but the early stage stochasticity is higher in ungrazed areas. Bryophyte communities in ungrazed successions resemble vascular plant communities. In contrast, bryophytes in grazed successions showed consistently high stochasticity and low determinism in both community composition and species co-occurrence. In conclusion, stochastic and individualistic species responses early in succession give way to more niche-driven dynamics in later successional stages. Grazing reduces predictability in both successional trends and species-level dynamics, especially in plant functional groups that are not well adapted to disturbance.