To cite this article: TRYHUBA ANATOLIY, BOYARCHUK VITALIJ, TRYHUBA INNA, BOYARCHUK OLEH, FTOMA OKSANA. 2019. Evaluation of risk value of investors of projects for the creation of crop protection of family dairy farms. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 67(5): 1357-1367. AbstractThe analysis of the status and trends of the development of territorial communities in Ukraine is carried out. The expediency of the development of tools for assessing the risk of investors' value in projects for the creation of cooperatives for the provision of family dairy farms is substantiated. The model and computer program of risk assessment of investors' value of projects based on the use of probability theory, methods of mathematical statistics and modeling of work execution for determination of variable costs for feed production are developed. It has been established that there are three scenarios for the formation of the value of investors for the creation of FC projects and three zones of their risk. The initial data are grounded for assessing the risk of investors investing in projects for the creation of cooperatives for the provision of family dairy farms. The study of the characteristics of the project environment for the conditions of the "Pokrova" SOK has been performed, which is located on the territory of the Zabolotiv's community of the Brody district of the Lviv region. The statistical characteristics of distribution of expenses for production of feed, their market value and profit of investors of cooperatives forage supply of family dairy farms are substantiated. The level of risk of obtaining value from investments in the project of establishing a cooperative of forage provision of family dairy farms with a given minimum value of their profit is determined.

The proposed approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of investor’s profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol involves the implementation of eight stages. It systematically takes into account the stochastic nature of many factors that determine the amount of investments in the project, as well as the stochastic nature of the market value of raw materials. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate assessment of the level of risk of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, taking into account the requirements of investors. Based on the use of the developed application software, stochastic models of profit of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol and patterns of changes in their risk for the Western region of Ukraine are obtained. It is established that with the growth of the minimum expected profit of investors of projects from 10 to 70$/ton, the probability of its receipt varies from 0.89 to 0.34. According to a reasonable scale, the level of risk of making a profit by investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol from wheat varies from acceptable to high.

The article analyzed the state of the global problem of ecological safety of the EU and argued the need to create a methodology for planning technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” (TIP “EGD”) that accounts for the risks to the stakeholders, i.e., the state, project executors, resource suppliers, project managers, and clients. Each of these has an individual set of values that determines the project risk for them. Herein is proposed a taxonomy of three ranks of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste, determined by their characteristics, products, and requirements for the stakeholders. The authors point out the need to create tools for quantitative risk assessment for the stakeholders of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste and distinguish four groups of risk components with regard to the value of such projects. A model of value risk formation is presented that addresses the risk management of each of these stakeholder values. The need to develop tools (models, methods, and algorithms) for quantitative risk assessment of the values of each type of project is discussed. Regularities in the formation of stakeholder values, which were a foundation of the model of formation, are established.

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