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This paper analyzes the behaviour of fiscal sustainability in Indonesia by using stationarity and cointegration tests and analyzing fiscal reaction function in Indonesia during the period of 2001-2016. It employed economic fluctuations and unanticipated exchange rates to observe the effect of twin shock on fiscal reaction function. In addition, it applied VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to cover and estimate the behaviour of fiscal reaction function in Indonesia. The VECM is a restricted VAR specified for use with cointegrated series and has nice interpretation with short-and long-run relationships. Based on the stationarity test, cointegration and fiscal reaction function, the results indicate that there is the fiscal sustainability of the variables used, namely the foreign debt and the public sector primary deficit in the short and long term. The study indicates that the primary deficit is a key determinant of the external debt. These findings also reveal that the efforts of fiscal authorities to optimize the domestic financing sources should be supported because they can reduce the external debt and maintain the fiscal sustainability. In addition, in the long term, economic fluctuations and foreign exchange rate fluctuations have a positive effect on the external debt in Indonesia.

This study aims to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policy under state finances law in Indonesia. The Indonesian government officially enacted the 2003 and 2004 Laws on State Finances, and it regulates fiscal rules covering the amount of the budget deficit and balanced budget rules. This fiscal rule is expected to encourage fiscal cyclicality to become countercyclical and provide buffering to deal with various economic shocks. This study uses quarterly time-series data from 2001 to 2019. The years 2001-2004 are used as the years prior to implementing the State Finance Law. Moreover, 2005 – 2019 is the time to capture the effects of cyclicality after implementing the Law. This study uses a dynamic distributed lag model to see the effect of GDP on government spending behavior. This study indicates that fiscal cyclicality before implementing the Law on State Finance behaved acyclically. Meanwhile, after implementing the Laws, this fiscal behavior is still procyclical. It means that the fiscal rules have not been effective in changing the direction and behavior of the fiscal to be countercyclical.

This study seeks to examine the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies and their impact on output and inflation in Indonesia from 2003:4 to 2018:4 using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). It is important to investigate the coordination between both because overall macroeconomic policy framework requires a close coordination between monetary and financial policies. The variables utilized are government spending, debt, output gap, tax, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the Indonesian Statistics, and Bank of Indonesia. Government spending as a proxy for fiscal policy and interest rate as a proxy for monetary policy have a strategic complement relationship, whereas tax revenue as a proxy for fiscal policy and interest rate as a proxy for monetary policy have a strategic substitutes relationship.

This study analyzes the monetary reaction function with shocks and the fear of floating phenomenon in the inflation targeting period in Indonesia. This study uses a new neoclassical synthesis approach. The unit root test result explains that all variables are stationary or I(0), and the long-run regression model is estimated. The results show that interest rates respond positively to future inflationary (counter-cyclical) in the log-run. The effect of triple shocks on interest rates in Indonesia is estimated using the Forward-Looking Model (FLM) and Error Correction Model (ECM). Using a predictive model performance (informal test), the best model in this study is FLM. In the short-run, only fluctuations in world oil prices significantly affect interest rates (counter-cyclical policy). Furthermore, BI's response to future inflation cannot be compared with BI's response to economic fluctuations, so this study has not been able to explain the significant effect of economic fluctuations on deposit interest rates. It means that the fear of the floating phenomenon cannot be explained in this study.