Abstract:The primary objective of this article is to answer the following two research questions: has the growing public debt of state governments promoted increased public investment? If the answer is yes, then does any increase in public investment lead to more growth in the Mexican states? Dynamic Models of panel data and the Generalized Method of Moments, with information for 32 states from 1993 to 2012, were used for this purpose. The econometric results confirmed that public debt is positively correlated with public investment and that this in turn generates economic growth. This does not mean that a good economic policy strategy has been followed, since the marginal positive impact of public investment, and therefore the public debt on the production per person, is reduced (1% increase in the interaction between public investment and public debt variable causes a 0.0005% increase in economic growth). This suggests deviations from the debt contracted for purposes other than production, which could lead to a situation of unsustainability of state public finances in the medium term.

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The article focuses on a structural problem of the Mexican economy: low economic growth. It is argued that the manufacturing industries are the engine of economic growth. In this sense, it is assumed that one of them main * Se agradecen los comentarios y las recomendaciones de dos dictaminadores anónimos. Los autores colaboraron de forma equiproporcional en la realización de esta investigación

This paper studies the relationship between public spending and production in Mexico. It aims to assess the direction of causality between these two variables ranging from economic growth to public expenditure (Wagner hypothesis) or public spending to economic growth (Keynesian hypothesis). Annual time series for the period 1925-2014 of production and public spending in real terms (1970 based) and logarithms were used. The test method involved three steps: 1) unit root tests; 2) cointegration test of Engle and Granger and 3) evidence of causality in the Granger sense. The paper uses five different specifications recommended by the specialized international literature. It was found that the series are stationary with regards first differences and are cointegrated, so we can say there is a long-term relationship. Statistical tests of Granger causality indicated that the Wagner hypothesis does not hold, while the Keynes hypothesis is validated. The study concludes that public spending and its proper management is one of the keys to promoting economic growth in Mexico. Originality/value: Time series for a long-term period, based on official information, something not done previously, were developed. This allowed the results to be more reliable than those presented by other authors. In addition, a modern procedure of econometric estimation, allowing the assessment of the two proposed scenarios was used. The work is relevant in terms of the design of economic policy and the pursuit of development in Mexico.

La formación de cadenas productivas es una condición indispensable para el desarrollo económico local en el nuevo escenario que genera un entorno globalmente competitivo. En el caso de Sonora, a partir de la instalación de la planta de estampado y ensamble de la Ford Motor Company en Hermosillo en 1986, las empresas locales no han podido integrarse plenamente a los procesos productivos de la planta. Este fracaso tiene su principal origen en la inadecuada política industrial aplicada por los organismos gubernamentales y privados, junto con la falta de una cultura emprendedora que asuma mayores riesgos. En este artículo se presenta la historia de la industria automotriz en México, en especial el caso de Sonora. Los resultados permiten prever que difícilmente –en el corto plazo– se generarán encadenamientos productivos.