Objective/BackgroundBiomarker(s) for prediction of the future progression rate of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) may be useful to stratify the management of individual patients. AAAs are associated with features of systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. Flow mediated dilatation (FMD) of the brachial artery is a recognised non-invasive measurement for endothelial function. We hypothesised that FMD is a potential biomarker of AAA progression and reflects the temporal changes of endothelial function during AAA progression.MethodsIn a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with AAAs (Oxford Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Study), AAA size was recorded by antero-posterior diameter (APD) (outer to outer) on ultrasound. Annual AAA progression was calculated by (ΔAPD/APD at baseline)/(number of days lapsed/365 days). FMD was assessed at the same time as AAA size measurement. Analyses of data were performed in the overall cohort, and further in subgroups of AAA by size (small: 30–39 mm; moderate: 40–55 mm; large: > 55 mm).ResultsFMD is inversely correlated with the diameter of AAAs in all patients (n = 162, Spearman’s r = −.28, p < .001). FMD is inversely correlated with AAA diameter progression in the future 12 months (Spearman’s r = −.35, p = .001), particularly in the moderate size group. Furthermore, FMD deteriorates during the course of AAA surveillance (from a median of 2.0% at baseline to 1.2% at follow-up; p = .004), while surgical repair of AAAs (n = 50 [open repair n = 22, endovascular repair n = 28)] leads to an improvement in FMD (from 1.1% pre-operatively to 3.8% post-operatively; p < .001), irrespective of the type of surgery.ConclusionFMD is inversely correlated with future AAA progression in humans. FMD deteriorates during the natural history of AAA, and is improved by surgery. The utility of FMD as a potential biomarker in the context of AAA warrants further investigation.

ObjectiveAccurate prediction of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth in an individual can allow personalised stratification of surveillance intervals and better inform the timing for surgery. The authors recently described the novel significant association between flow mediated dilatation (FMD) and future AAA growth. The feasibility of predicting future AAA growth was explored in individual patients using a set of benchmark machine learning techniques.MethodsThe Oxford Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Study (OxAAA) prospectively recruited AAA patients undergoing the routine NHS management pathway. In addition to the AAA diameter, FMD was systemically measured in these patients. A benchmark machine learning technique (non-linear Kernel support vector regression) was applied to predict future AAA growth in individual patients, using their baseline FMD and AAA diameter as input variables.ResultsProspective growth data were recorded at 12 months (360 ± 49 days) in 94 patients. Of these, growth data were further recorded at 24 months (718 ± 81 days) in 79 patients. The average growth in AAA diameter was 3.4% at 12 months, and 2.8% per year at 24 months. The algorithm predicted the individual's AAA diameter to within 2 mm error in 85% and 71% of patients at 12 and 24 months.ConclusionsThe data highlight the utility of FMD as a biomarker for AAA and the value of machine learning techniques for AAA research in the new era of precision medicine.

Introduction: Type 2 endoleaks (T2Es) after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can lead to sac expansion or failure of sac regression, and often present as a management dilemma. The intraluminal thrombus (ILT) may influence the likelihood of endoleaks after EVAR and can be characterized using routine preoperative imaging. We examined the relationship between preoperative spatial morphology of ILT and the incidence of postoperative T2E. Methods: All patients who underwent EVAR at the John Radcliffe Hospital (Oxford, UK) were prospectively entered in a clinical database. Computed tomography angiograms (CTAs) were performed as part of routine clinical care. The ILT morphology of each patient was determined using the preoperative CTA. Arterial phase cross-sectional images of the AAA were analyzed according to the presence and morphology of the thrombus in each quadrant. The overall ILT morphology was defined by measurements obtained over a 4cm segment of the AAA. The diagnosis of T2Es during EVAR surveillance was confirmed by CTAs. The relation between the ILT morphology and T2E was assessed using logistic regression. Results: Between September 2009 and July 2016, 271 patients underwent EVAR for infrarenal AAAs (male: 241, age ¼ 79 ± 7). The ILT was present in 265 (98%) of AAAs. Mean follow-up was 1.9 ± 1.6 years. The T2E was observed in 77 cases. Sixty-one percent of T2Es were observed within the first week after surgery. The T2E was observed in 50% (3/6) of cases without the ILT (no-ILT). Compared with no-ILT, the presence of circumferential or posterolateral ILTs was protective from T2Es (odds ratio ¼ 0.33 and 0.37; P ¼ 0.002 and P ¼ 0.047, respectively). Conclusions: The spatial ILT morphology on routine preoperative CTA imaging can be a biomarker for post-EVAR T2Es. ILTs that cover the posterolateral aspects of the lumen, or circumferential ILTs, are protective of T2Es. This information can be useful in the preoperative planning of EVARs.

Objective: The age at which arteriosclerosis begins to contribute to events is uncertain. We determined, across the adult lifespan, the extent to which arteriosclerosis-related changes in arterial function occur in those with precipitous arterial events (stroke and critical limb ischemia). Approaches and Results: In 1082 black South Africans (356 with either critical limb ischemia [n=238] or stroke [n=118; 35.4% premature], and 726 age, sex, and ethnicity-matched randomly selected controls), arterial function was evaluated from applanation tonometry and velocity and diameter measurements in the outflow tract. Compared with age- and sex-matched controls, over 10-year increments in age from 20 to 60years, multivariate-adjusted (including steady-state pressures) aortic pulse wave velocity, characteristic impedance (Zc), forward wave pressures (Pf), and early systolic pulse pressure amplification were consistently altered in those with arterial events. Increases in Zc were accounted for by aortic stiffness (no differences in aortic diameter) and Pf by changes in Zc and not aortic flow or wave re-reflection. Multivariate-adjusted pulse wave velocity (7.48±0.30 versus 5.82±0.15 m/s, P <0.0001), Zc ( P <0.0005), and Pf ( P <0.0001) were higher and early systolic pulse pressure amplification lower ( P <0.0001) in those with precipitous events than in controls. In comparison to age- and sex-matched controls, independent of risk factors, pulse wave velocity, and Zc ( P <0.005 and <0.05) were more closely associated with premature events than events in older persons and Pf and early systolic pulse pressure amplification were at least as closely associated with premature events as events in older persons. Conclusions: Arteriosclerosis-related changes in arterial function are consistently associated with arterial events beyond risk factors from as early as 20 years of age.

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