Management decision-making tasks are usually characterized by a high level of uncertainty. When solving this class of problems, it is necessary to take into account the environmental conditions for the implementation of the decisions made and the consequences that may arise in this case. The decision-making task in the face of uncertainty can be represented in the form of a "game with nature", in which the optimal player strategy is sought. A two-stage decision-making process is considered, in which at each stage the decision-making problem is solved in conditions of risk. The case is supposed in which, after making a decision at the first stage, choosing an effective alternative and the onset of a certain state of nature, it is necessary to solve the decision-making problem of the second stage. Decision-making models based on well-known decision models of the "game with nature" are proposed. The developed models allow in the process of choosing an effective alternative to the first stage to assess the possible consequences of such a choice, taking into account the expectations of the decision maker. In the course of experimental verification, it is shown that the developed decision-making models can be used to solve such multi-stage problems, the phased solution of which is incorrect. This may occur due to the fact that some of their stages are associated with certain losses, and others-with profit. In such situations, it is advisable to consider the problem as a whole and at each stage, take into account all available information as much as possible.
The study is devoted to the analysis of the problem of decision-making regarding the organization of the educational process in the conditions of external influences of irresistible nature. The case of a forced reduction in the academic semester with the need for full implementation of educational plans for the training of education seekers is considered. It was determined that for effective planning of the educational process, it is initially necessary to divide the classrooms of the educational institution between educational groups belonging to different structural units of the educational institution. The verbal and mathematical formulation of the task of dividing classrooms between educational groups was completed. A mathematical model of the problem was built. The model is a set of restrictions that are imposed on the options for admissible distributions of audiences. The developed model allows you to introduce restrictions on the length of the working day, breaks between classes in individual groups, the number of working days per week, etc. An algorithm for developing variants of management decisions regarding the distribution of classrooms between educational groups of different structural units of the university has been built. Variants of management decisions depend on the initial conditions that are included in the problem model and on the strength of the set of admissible solutions. The possibility of developing options for management decisions regarding combined options for the organization of the educational process (face-to-face, distance, and mixed forms of education) is foreseen. In such cases, the management of the educational institution may impose restrictions on the possibility of alternating classes that take place in classrooms with classes that take place online. The developed approach also allows the redistribution of audiences between structural units for separately defined periods. The implementation of the developed models and algorithms for the autumn semester 2022–2023 at the university will allow the completion of studies by mid-November. At the same time, all educational plans will be completed in full. The developed tool makes it possible to increase the efficiency of management decision-making processes regarding the organization of the educational process in higher education institutions.
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