Ecography E4 awardSpecies distribution models (SDMs) have rapidly evolved into one of the most widely used tools to answer a broad range of ecological questions, from the effects of climate change to challenges for species management. Current SDMs and their predictions under anthropogenic climate change are, however, often based on free-air or synoptic temperature conditions with a coarse resolution, and thus fail to capture apparent temperature (cf. microclimate) experienced by living organisms within their habitats. Yet microclimate operates as soon as a habitat can be characterized by a vertical component (e.g. forests, mountains, or cities) or by horizontal variation in surface cover. The mismatch between how we usually express climate (cf. coarse-grained free-air conditions) and the apparent microclimatic conditions that living organisms experience has only recently been acknowledged in SDMs, yet several studies have already made considerable progress in tackling this problem from different angles. In this review, we summarize the currently available methods to obtain meaningful microclimatic data for use in distribution modelling. We discuss the issue of extent and resolution, and propose an integrated framework using a selection of appropriatelyplaced sensors in combination with both the detailed measurements of the habitat 3D structure, for example derived from digital elevation models or airborne laser scanning, and the long-term records of free-air conditions from weather stations. As such, we can obtain microclimatic data with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution and extent to dynamically model current and future species distributions.

Summary• Discrete climate events such as heat waves and droughts can have a disproportionate impact on ecosystems relative to the temporal scale over which they occur. Research oriented towards (extreme) events rather than (gradual) trends is therefore urgently needed.• Here, we imposed heat waves and droughts (50-yr return time) in a full factorial design on experimental plant communities in spring, summer or autumn. Droughts were created by removing the controlled water table (rainout shelters prevented precipitation), while heat waves were imposed with infrared heaters.• Measurements of whole-system CO 2 exchange, growth and biomass production revealed multiple interactions between treatments and the season in which they occurred. Heat waves had only small and transient effects, with infrared imaging showing little heat stress because of transpirational cooling. If heat waves were combined with drought, negative effects observed in single factor drought treatments were exacerbated through intensified soil drying, and heat stress in summer. Plant recovery from stress differed, affecting the biomass yield.• In conclusion, the timing of extreme events is critical regarding their impact, and synergisms between heat waves and drought aggravate the negative effects of these extremes on plant growth and functioning.

Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration of subarctic species.

Extreme events such as heat waves are emerging as a key facet of climate change, but to date, experiments on the impacts on plants are scarce. Experimental simulation of heat waves requires knowledge of regional heat wave characteristics, as plant responses depend heavily on meteorological conditions. We analysed nine Western European meteorological datasets, and found that heat waves occurring during the growing season in this region encompass more sunshine ( 1 69%), lower precipitation (À78%) and a larger vapour pressure deficit (VPD) ( 1 111%) compared with normal conditions. Possible consequences for plant responses are discussed, with emphasis on the likely seasonal variation of heat wave impacts. We explain why infrared heating (which typically increases VPD) is an appropriate technique for heat wave simulation. Finally, we advocate experiments to take into account the smaller nighttime compared with daytime temperature increases observed during heat waves, and the precipitation deficits before and during heat waves.