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Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.

Larval mussels (Family Unionidae) are obligate parasites on fish, and after excystment from their host, as juveniles, they are transported with flow. We know relatively little about the mechanisms that affect dispersal and subsequent settlement of juvenile mussels in large rivers. We used a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of a reach of the Upper Mississippi River with stochastic Lagrangian particle tracking to simulate juvenile dispersal. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the importance of excystment location in two-dimensional space (lateral and longitudinal) and to assess the effects of vertical location (depth in the water column) on dispersal distances and juvenile settling distributions. In our simulations, greater than 50% of juveniles mussels settled on the river bottom within 500 m of their point of excystment, regardless of the vertical location of the fish in the water column. Dispersal distances were most variable in environments with higher velocity and high gradients in velocity, such as along channel margins, near the channel bed, or where effects of river bed morphology caused large changes in hydraulics. Dispersal distance was greater and variance was greater when juvenile excystment occurred in areas where vertical velocity (w) was positive (indicating an upward velocity) than when w was negative. Juvenile dispersal distance is likely to be more variable for mussels species whose hosts inhabit areas with steeper velocity gradients (e.g. channel margins) than a host that generally inhabits low-flow environments (e.g. impounded areas).