No abstract

No abstract

The Iowa Flood Center (IFC), established following the 2008 record floods, has developed a real-time flood forecasting and information dissemination system for use by all Iowans. The system complements the operational forecasting issued by the National Weather Service, is based on sound scientific principles of flood genesis and spatial organization, and includes many technological advances. At its core is a continuous rainfall–runoff model based on landscape decomposition into hillslopes and channel links. Rainfall conversion to runoff is modeled through soil moisture accounting at hillslopes. Channel routing is based on a nonlinear representation of water velocity that considers the discharge amount as well as the upstream drainage area. Mathematically, the model represents a large system of ordinary differential equations organized to follow river network topology. The IFC also developed an efficient numerical solver suitable for high-performance computing architecture. The solver allows the IFC to update forecasts every 15 min for over 1,000 Iowa communities. The input to the system comes from a radar-rainfall algorithm, developed in-house, that maps rainfall every 5 min with high spatial resolution. The algorithm uses Level II radar reflectivity and other polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dual-Polarimetric (WSR-88DP) radar network. A large library of flood inundation maps and real-time river stage data from over 200 IFC “stream-stage sensors” complement the IFC information system. The system communicates all this information to the general public through a comprehensive browser-based and interactive platform. Streamflow forecasts and observations from Iowa can provide support for a similar system being developed at the National Water Center through model intercomparisons, diagnostic analyses, and product evaluations.

A numerical model for simulation of freshwater mussel dynamics was used to investigate the effects of substrate and hydrodynamic conditions on the formation of mussel beds in a 10-km reach of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Suitable habitats for mussel survival were identified by creating a dimensionless parameter (shear stress ratio) combining shear force and substrate type. This parameter is a measure of substrate stability that could be used in many different applications. Dispersal of juvenile mussels with flow as they detach from their fish hosts was simulated by a particle-tracking mechanism that identified suitable areas for colonization with the potential to evolve into mussel beds. Simulated areas of mussel accumulation coincided with reported locations of mussel beds, and simulated densities were in the range of abundant mussel beds in other reaches of the UMR. These results, although more qualitative than quantitative, provide insight into factors influencing the formation of mussel beds in a large river.