Decisions regarding consumption over the lifespan require some estimate of how long that lifespan is likely to be. Payne et al. (2013) found that respondents' estimates of their own life expectancy are on average 8.6 years shorter when elicited using a die-by frame than when elicited by a live-to frame. If decision makers act on these life expectancies, then an arbitrary detail of framing will lead to drastically different choices. We propose that the framing effect is sensitive to the iterative probabilistic elicitation procedure employed by the previous literature. Study 1 compares the framing effect across the iterative probabilistic procedure and a point estimate procedure that simply asks respondents the age they will live to/die by. The iterative probabilistic procedure implies a life expectancy six years shorter in the die-by frame than in the live-to frame, replicating the results of Payne et al. (2013). With the point estimate procedure, however, the framing effect reverses: the die-by frame increases life expectancy by three years. In Study 2, we test for the framing effect using a point estimate procedure on a representative sample of 2000 Britons. Again, and in contrast with the previous literature, we find that the die-by frame implies longer life. Our results reinforce the previous literature that beliefs around life expectancy are constructed. We recommend caution when attempting to debias life expectancy estimates or using life expectancies in choice architecture
State‐run pensions advice websites in the UK and the USA recommend considering how long the pension needs to last and offer a life expectancy calculator for this purpose. Theories make conflicting predictions regarding the effect on annuities preference of following this recommendation. We asked a quota sample of over 2000 UK residents to choose between an annuity or cashing out their pension. Whereas a control group made this choice without any prompt, three treatment groups were asked prior to choice how long their retirement would last, or what age they would live to, or what age they would die by. Asking about life expectancy reduced preference for annuities relative to the control condition. This research suggests that the reference to life expectancy on the UK's pension advice website exacerbates underannuitization.
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