The outcome of multiple sclerosis (MS), assessed according to the Kurtzke Disability Status Scale (DSS), was reviewed in 1,099 consecutive patients followed in London, Canada, between 1972 and 1984. A geographically based subgroup of 196 patients representing 90% of Middlesex County MS patients as well as a group of 197 patients seen from onset of disease were separately analysed. The clinical course was progressive from onset in 33% of the total population and in 28% of the Middlesex County subgroup. Of those with duration of 6-10 yrs, 30-40% with initially remitting disease developed progressive MS. The cross-sectional distribution of disability was bimodal with peaks at DSS 1 (no disability) and DSS 6 (assistance required for walking). Actuarial analysis showed that the median time to reach DSS 6 from onset of MS was 14.97 +/- 0.31 yrs in the total population and 9.42 +/- 0.44 yrs in the "seen from onset' subgroup. Survival was minimally altered; 87% of patients followed up to 40 yrs were still alive, although ascertainment of cases with this duration of MS was incomplete. Data describing the rate at which disability develops after the onset of a progressive phase of MS are also presented. The implications of these data in planning and interpretation of clinical therapeutic trials are discussed.

Controversy exists regarding the predictive value of the early clinical course of multiple sclerosis (MS). Three parameters often considered are the attack rate, the first interattack interval and the rate at which disability develops in the early years of the disease. We have recorded the time to reach successive levels of disability defined by the Kurtzke Disability Status Scale (DSS) in 1,099 MS patients followed at University Hospital, London, Canada between 1972 and 1984. Our population is particularly suitable because of its size, the high degree of ascertainment of cases in the community, and the regular follow-up provided. Life table analysis was used to compare survival in patients stratified according to the above three parameters using DSS 6 as end point. Significant differences were evident in the survival distributions. Despite the extensive interindividual variation in the rate at which disability developed, the early course of MS may be useful in determining the relative risk of rapid progression.

The clinical features of relapses and progression largely define multiple sclerosis phenotypes. A relapsing course is followed by chronic progression in some 80% of cases within 2 decades. The relationship between these phases and long-term outcome remains uncertain. We have analysed these clinical features within a well-studied natural history cohort with mean follow-up of 25 years. For the entire cohort, median times to reach Disability Status Scale (DSS) 6, 8 and 10 were 12.7, 20.6 and 43.9 years, respectively. Among 824 attack-onset patients, the great majority entered a progressive phase with a mean time to progression of 10.4 years. The effects of relapses often cloud the clinical onset of progression. However, there are circumstances where onset of progression is early, relatively discrete and identifiable at DSS of 2 or less. Three subgroups allow for clarity of outcome comparison and they are (i) cases of primary progressive (PP) disease, (ii) attack-onset disease where only a single attack has occurred before onset of progression (SAP) and (iii) secondary progressive (SP) disease where recovery from relapses allows recognition of the earliest clinical stages when progression begins. Here we compare survival curves in these three groups. Among cohorts of SAP (n = 140), PP (n = 219) and SP (n = 146) where progression was stratified by DSS at its onset, there was no difference in time to DSS 6, 8 and 10. These findings demonstrate that the progressive course is independent of relapses either preceding the onset of relapse-free progression or subsequent to it. Among SAP patients, the degree of recovery from the single defining exacerbation had no significant effect on outcome. The site of the original attack was not usually where progression began. The relatively stereotyped nature of the progressive phase seen in all progressive phenotypes suggests regional and/or functional differential susceptibility to a process that appears degenerative in nature. The highly prevalent distal corticospinal tract dysfunction in progressive disease and the pathologically demonstrated selective axonal loss seen in this tract raises the possibility of a dying back central axonopathy, at least in part independent of plaque location or burden. Despite considerable individual variation, the progressive course of disability seen in groups of PP, SAP and SP-DSS2 is similarly stereotyped in quality and pace and may entail mechanisms common to all forms of progressive multiple sclerosis. The possibility that this is the primary process in some cases must be considered.

We used hypothetical entry criteria typical of those used in clinical therapeutic trials to determine the patients who would have been eligible among those followed in a clinic-based study of multiple sclerosis (MS) in London, Ontario, between 1972 and 1984. For these patients, we determined the observed frequency of deterioration by 1 point on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke, which is the most feasible and frequently used endpoint in clinical trials. We calculated the number of patients required for a randomized clinical trial to detect a significant result (alpha = 0.05) with 80% or 90% power based on the observed rate of deterioration. To assess the linearity of the DSS, we determined the frequency of progression and staying time at each level of the DSS. Overall the frequency of progression was lower and the staying times were longer at higher levels of disability. There was considerable intrapatient as well as interpatient variation in staying time. These data have major implications for the design and conduct of clinical therapeutic trials in MS.

A multivariate hierarchical analysis was used to assess the significance of several demographic and clinical factors in multiple sclerosis patients. We used the time to reach level 6 on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke as endpoint. Several factors at presentation were significantly associated with an adverse outcome including older age at onset, male sex, cerebellar involvement or insidious onset of a motor deficit as first symptom. Factors ascertained later which were associated significantly with a worse outcome, even after controlling for those previously mentioned, included persisting deficits in brainstem, cerebellar or cerebral systems, a higher frequency of attacks in the first 2 yrs after onset of disease, a short first interattack interval and higher DSS at 2 yrs and 5 yrs from onset. An analysis similar to multiple regression was used to generate predictive models which permit the calculation of the median time to DSS 6 for patients with a given set of covariates. The goodness of fit of these models to the data and their predictive accuracy are discussed.