The spatial coherency of strong ground motion from fifteen earthquakes recorded by the Lotung LSST strong motion array is analyzed. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 3.7 to 7.8 and in epicentral distance from 5 to 80 km. In all, a total of 533 station pairs are used with station separations ranging from 6 to 85 meters. Empirical coherency functions for the horizontal component S-waves appropriate for use in engineering analyses are derived from these data. The derived coherency functions are applicable to all frequencies and to separation distances up to 100 m. For these short station separations, the coherency decreases much faster with increasing frequency than with increasing station separation. The computed coherencies indicate that at high frequencies (>10 Hz) over 25 percent of the power of the ground motion is random for station separations greater than 30 m.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

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