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To examine the morbidity of compensated cirrhosis type B, a cohort of 349 Western European, white patients (86% men; mean age, 44 years) with biopsy-proven cirrhosis was followed up for a mean period of 73 months and was studied for occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensation. At entry into the study all patients were tested for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg; 34% of patients were HBeAg-positive) and antibody to hepatitis delta virus (anti-HDV; 20% of patients were anti-HDV-positive); 48% of 252 patients tested were hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA-positive. During follow-up HCC developed in 32 (9%) of the 349 patients and decompensation was observed in 88 (28%) of 317 tumor-free patients. Five years after diagnosis, the probability of HCC appearance was 6% and the probability of decompensation was 23%. After the first episode of decompensation the probability of survival was 35% at 5 years. Cox's regression analysis identified three variables that independently correlated with HCC: age, serum levels of platelets, and liver firmness on physical examination. HBV (HBeAg or HBV-DNA) and HDV (anti-HDV) markers at presentation had no prognostic value for the development of HCC. In conclusion, a high proportion of patients with HBsAg-positive compensated cirrhosis do not experience worsening of their condition for several years, but once decompensation occurs life expectancy is poor. European, white patients with compensated cirrhosis type B are at consistent risk for HCC. Prognostic factors for HCC reflect an advanced stage of cirrhosis and support the hypothesis that development of a tumor could be the likely consequence of long-standing hepatic disease.

Liver biopsy is required for staging hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C, but it is an expensive procedure with occasional complications and poor patient acceptance. This cohort study was designed to assess the accuracy of a noninvasive method aimed to discriminate between patients with and without significant liver fibrosis (stages 2-4 versus 0-1). Clinically relevant variables were analyzed in a cohort of 476 consecutive untreated patients (estimation group, 351 patients; validation group, 125 patients) with chronic hepatitis C who underwent a liver biopsy. Multivariate analysis identified age, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), cholesterol, platelet count, and prothrombin time as independent predictors of fibrosis. We constructed a model and a score system combining age, GGT, cholesterol, and platelet count that proved useful to identify patients without significant hepatic fibrosis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 for the estimation group and 0.81 for the validation group. Using the best cutoff score (less than 4.2), presence of significant fibrosis (F2 to F4) could be excluded with high accuracy (negative predictive value of 96%) in 125 (36%) of 351 patients. Similarly, it could be excluded with the same certainty in 49 (39%) of the 125 patients of the validation group. Only 2 patients with liver fibrosis stage 2 were incorrectly classified. In conclusion, a combination of easily accessible variables accurately predicts the absence of significant fibrosis and might render liver biopsy unnecessary in more than one third of patients with chronic hepatitis C. (HEPATOLOGY 2002;36:986-992.)