What causes petro-aggression? Conventional wisdom maintains that the regime type of petrostates has significant effects on a likelihood of petrostates launching revisionist MIDs While domestic politics is an important factor that explains the motivation and behavioral patterns of a petrostate, it says little about the international environment under which a petrostate decides to initiate conflicts. Petro-aggression does not take place devoid of concerns for the possible international backlash that its aggression could inflict on itself. One significant factor that presents opportunities and constraints for petro-aggression is a great power alliance. In essence, the great power has strong incentives not to upset the relationship with its client petrostate ally for both strategic and economic reasons, and hence tends not to oppose military adventurism by its ally. Consequently, the petrostate's anticipation of great power inaction or even protection for its revisionist policy creates a moral hazard problem. Overall, by offering favorable circumstances, a great power alliance has a positive effect on petro-aggression. Although not without caveats, our large-n model and case study bear out this conclusion.
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