This paper explores early predictors of high school graduation and success. Employing 7th grade cohorts from three large California school districts (San Francisco, Fresno, and Long Beach), we investigate the role of several key middle school academic performance measures in identifying students' 11th grade academic performance, passing the California High School Exit Examination on the first attempt, and diploma receipt. We find that standardized assessments, timing of algebra, and course failures in middle school provide useful indicators of students' high school academic success. Our aim is not to identify any causal mechanism by which middle school achievement leads to high school success or failure, but rather to describe important associations that may aid policymakers and school leaders to develop strategies early in students' educational pursuit of the high school diploma.

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Many students arrive at college unprepared to do college-level work, facing a host of college readiness assessments and developmental education coursework. In this article, we examine how a student’s readiness to take college classes upon entry to the university is related to four longer term postsecondary outcomes. We utilize a unique longitudinal dataset of the census of first-time freshmen at the nation’s largest public 4-year state postsecondary system to describe differences by campus and across college majors. In addition we explore the use of one measure that the system does not currently use to determine readiness—high school grade point average—and its relationship with both the existing readiness measure and postsecondary outcomes. Our results indicate that grade point average can be a useful predictor of college success above and beyond the readiness measure.

This paper explores early predictors of high school graduation and success. Employing 7th grade cohorts from three large California school districts (San Francisco, Fresno, and Long Beach), we investigate the role of several key middle school academic performance measures in identifying students' 11th grade academic performance, passing the California High School Exit Examination on the first attempt, and diploma receipt. We find that standardized assessments, timing of algebra, and course failures in middle school provide useful indicators of students' high school academic success. Our aim is not to identify any causal mechanism by which middle school achievement leads to high school success or failure, but rather to describe important associations that may aid policymakers and school leaders to develop strategies early in students' educational pursuit of the high school diploma.