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We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

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The clu:onology of M>7 palcoearthquakes on the central five segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the best dated in the world and contains 16 earthquakes in the past 5600 years with an average repeat thne of 350 years. Repeat times for individual segments vary by a factor of 2, and range from about 1200 to 2600 years. Four of the central five segments ruptured between-• 620+30 and 1230+60 calendar years B.P. The remaining segment (Brigham City segment) has not ruptured in the past 2120+100 years. Comparison of the WFZ space-time diagram of paleoearthquakes with synthetic paleoseismic histories indicates that the observed temporal clusters and gaps have about an equal probability (depending on model assumptions) of reflecting random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion. Regional seismicity suggests that for exposure times of 50 and 100 years, the probability for an earthquake of M>7 anywhere within the Wasatch Front region, based on a Poisson model, is 0.16 and 0.30, respectively. A fault-specific WFZ model predicts 50 and ! 00 year probabilities for a M>7 earthquake on the WFZ itself, based on a Poisson model, as 0.13 and 0.25, respectively. In contrast, segment-specific earthquake probabilities that asstune quasi-periodic recurrence behavior on the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments are less (0.01-0.07 in 100 years) than the regional or fault-specific estimates (0.25-0.30 in 100 years), due to the short elapsed times compared to average recurrence intervals on those segments. The Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, however, have time-dependent probabilities that approach or exceed the regional and fault specific probabilities. For the Salt Lake City segment, these elevated probabilities are due to the elapsed time being approximately equal to the average late Holocene recurrence time. For the Brigham City segment, the elapsed time is significantly longer than the segment-specific late Holocene recurrence time. M 7 and 7.5 and have been termed "characteristic earthquakes"by Schwartz and Coppersmith [1984]. Despite the evidence for prehistoric earthquakes, however, no earthquake larger than M 3 has been clearly associated with Paper number 95JB02851. 0 ! 48-0227/96/95 JB-02851 $05.00 the WFZ in 130 years of recorded history [Arabasz et al., 1992]. Although historic earthquakes as large as M 6.6 have occurred in central Utah (1934 Hansel Valley [Shenon, 1935]), the lack of large historic earthquakes on the WFZ itself makes forecasting larger (M>7), damaging earthquakes along the Wasatch Front problematic. Gilbert [! 884] was the first to propose that the WFZ would be the site of a future earthquake disaster. His long-term forecast, on what is now recognized as the Salt Lake City segment of the WFZ, was based on the conspicuous absence of young fault scarps in northeast Salt Lake City and the hypothesis that "any locality on the fault line of a large mountain range, which has been exempt from earthquake for a long time, is by so much nearer to the date of recurrence" [Gilbert, 1884, p. 5...