An individual-based model, incorporating outputs of a data-assimilating hydrodynamic model, was developed to investigate the role of ocean circulation in the recruitment processes of western rock lobster ( Panulirus cygnus ) during its 9- to 11-month larval phase off the west coast of Australia. During austral summer, strong northward alongshore winds aid the offshore movement of early-stage model larvae from midshelf hatching sites into open ocean; during austral winter, eastward flows that feed the enhanced Leeuwin Current facilitate onshore movement of late-stage larvae towards nearshore habitats. Stokes drift induced by swells from the Southern Ocean is critical to retain larvae off the west coast. Diurnal migration and temperature-dependent growth are also important. Model larvae hatched in late spring – early summer grow faster because of longer exposure to warm summer temperature, which allows them to be transported towards the coast by the strong onshore flows in winter and reduces their natural mortality. Preliminary source–sink relationship indicates that the population was well mixed off the coast, with higher likelihood of settlement success from hatching sites in the north, mostly due to higher surface temperature. Weighted with the breeding stock distribution, the area between 27.5°S and 29.5°S, including the Abrolhos Islands, is the most important hatching area to the success of settlement.

The microscopic and macroscopic changes which occur during ovary development to spawning have been investigated for P. larisulcatus. The latter stages (3 and 4) of development and the act of spawning have been found to be confined to single intermoult periods, with spawning being possible during each of a series of consecutive intermoult periods. Fecundity was found to vary significantly with the size of the individual, with the number of eggs ranging from approximately 105000 (123 mm total length female) to 650000 (217 mm total length female) at each spawning. The use of an index of population fecundity in combination with estimates of spawning frequency to document spawning seasons is discussed. Using the population fecundity method the two northern populations have been shown to have a year round spawning season, with maximum spawning occurring from autumn to spring. while the southern population was shown to have shorter seasons over summer. A relationship between ovary development and temperatures in excess of 17�C is suggested as the probable cause of the differences in duration of spawning seasons along the Western Australian coastline.

Puerulus settlement in the western rock lobster fishery has remained below average for seven consecutive years (2006/2007–2012/2013), with 2008/2009 being the lowest in over 40 years. Examination of the timing of the start of spawning using fishery-independent data since the mid-2000s indicated that spawning has been occurring earlier. The low settlement appears related to higher water temperatures at the time of the onset of spawning (October) since the mid-2000s. Statistical analysis shows that the most (71%) of the variation in puerulus settlement was explained by the timing of spawning, storm activity during autumn/spring, and offshore water temperatures in February. Earlier spawning may cause a mismatch with other environmental factors such as peaks in ocean productivity and/or storms that assist the larvae return to the coast and offshore water temperatures that help the early stage larval growth. These variables produced a plausible hypothesis to explain the decline in puerulus settlement for these 7 years, including the recruitment failure of 2008/2009. They also predicted the substantial improvement in settlement for 2013/2014. Egg production levels did not to have a significant relationship with puerulus settlement levels after taking environmental variables into account. Further verification with additional years is required to see whether this relationship is maintained. Global climate change may influence these environmental factors: the timing of spawning is influenced by water temperature and there has been a reduced trend of autumn to spring storms off southwest Australia.

The absence of marine records for M. dalli below latitude 31�S., together with data on gonadal stages and spermatophore deposition on females of this species in the Swan estuary, provide very strong indications that the western school prawn typically breeds in estuarine environments in south-western Australia. The 0 + recruits, which first appeared in samples in February, remained in the estuary during the following months and by November had reached a size suitable for exploitation. At this time they were approaching sexual maturity and were starting to move from the shallows to the deeper waters of the estuary where they remained for their second year of life. In contrast to Australian Penaeus species, M. dalli mates during the intermoult period when the shell is hard rather than immediately after moulting.

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