Context High levels of the phosphate regulating hormone, fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), associate with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but little is known about its relationship with adverse outcomes in the much larger population of patients with earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Objective Evaluate FGF23 as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with CKD. Design, Setting and Participants A prospective study of 3,879 participants with CKD stages 2 – 4 who enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort between June 2003 and September 2008. Main Outcome Measures All-cause mortality and ESRD. Results At enrollment, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 42.8 ± 13.5 ml/min/1.73m2, and median FGF23 was 145 (interquartile range [IQR] 96 – 239) reference units/ml (RU/ml). During a median follow-up of 3.5 (IQR 2.5 – 4.4) years, 266 participants died (20.3/1000 person-years) and 410 reached ESRD (33.0/1000 person-years). Higher FGF23 levels independently associated with a greater risk of death in adjusted analyses of FGF23 on a continuous scale (hazard ratio [HR] per SD of lnFGF23, 1.5; 95%CI 1.3 – 1.7) or in quartiles (quartile 1, reference; quartile 2, HR 1.3; 95%CI 0.8 – 2.2; quartile 3, HR 2.0; 95%CI 1.2 – 3.3; quartile 4, HR 3.0; 95%CI 1.8 – 5.1). FGF23 was not independently associated with ESRD in adjusted analyses of the entire cohort, however, the effect was modified by eGFR (P for interaction = 0.005), which was the strongest predictor for ESRD. FGF23 independently associated with significantly greater risk of ESRD among participants with eGFR 30 – 44 (HR 1.3 per SD of lnFGF23; 95%CI 1.04 – 1.6) and ≥ 45 (HR 1.7; 95%CI 1.1 – 2.4), but not < 30 ml/min/1.73m2. Conclusion Elevated FGF23 is an independent risk factor for ESRD in patients with relatively preserved kidney function and for mortality across the spectrum of CKD.

Background β-trace protein (BTP) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) are novel glomerular filtration markers that have stronger associations with adverse outcomes than creatinine. Comparisons of BTP and B2M to creatinine and cystatin C are limited by the absence of rigorously developed GFR estimating equations for the novel markers. Study Design Study of diagnostic test accuracy. Setting & Participants Pooled database of three populations with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with mean measured GFR of 48 ml/min/1.73m2 (N=3551; MDRD [Modification of Diet in Renal Disease] Study, AASK [African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension], and CRIC [Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort] Study). Index Tests GFR estimated using creatinine, cystatin C, BTP or B2M Reference Test GFR measured as the urinary clearance of iothalamate. Results For BTP and B2M, coefficients for age, sex and race were smaller than for creatinine, and were similar or smaller than for cystatin C. For B2M, coefficients for sex, age and race were smaller than for creatinine, and were similar (age and race) or smaller (sex) than for cystatin C. The final equations with BTP (BTP, age and sex) or B2M (B2M alone) were less accurate than either the CKD-EPI (CKD Epidemiology Collaboration) creatinine or cystatin C equations. The combined BTP-B2M equation (BTP and B2M alone) had similar accuracy to the CKD-EPI creatinine or cystatin C equation. The average of the BTP-B2M equation and the CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation was not more accurate than the CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation. Limitations No external validation population, study population was restricted to CKD, few participants older than 65 years or non-black, non-white race. Conclusions BTP and B2M are less influenced by age, sex and race than creatinine and less influenced by race than cystatin C, but provide less accurate GFR estimates than the CKD-EPI creatinine and cystatin C equations. The CKD-EPI BTP and B2M equation provides a methodological advance for their study as filtration markers and in their associations with risk and adverse outcomes, but further study is required before clinical use.

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Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is associated with poor outcomes in the dialysis and general populations, but its effect in CKD is unclear. We evaluated the prevalence and predictors of PH measures and their associations with long-term clinical outcomes in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD. Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study participants who had Doppler echocardiography performed were considered for inclusion. PH was defined as the presence of estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) .35 mmHg and/or tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TRV) .2.5 m/s. Associations between PH, PASP, and TRV and cardiovascular events, renal events, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Of 2959 eligible participants, 21% (n=625) had PH, with higher rates among those with lower levels of kidney function. In the multivariate model, older age, anemia, lower left ventricular ejection fraction, and presence of left ventricular hypertrophy were associated with greater odds of having PH. After adjusting for relevant confounding variables, PH was independently associated with higher risk for death (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.72) and cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.52) but not renal events. Similarly, TRV and PASP were associated with death and cardiovascular events but not renal events. In this study of patients with CKD and preserved left ventricular systolic function, we report a high prevalence of PH. PH and higher TRV and PASP (echocardiographic measures of PH) are associated with adverse outcomes in CKD. Future studies may explain the mechanisms that underlie these findings.

Background Serum β-trace protein (BTP) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) are independently associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality in the general population and high-risk groups with diabetes or advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Less is known about their associations with outcomes and predictive ability in adults with moderate CKD. Study Design Prospective cohort study. Setting & Participants 3613 adults from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study (45% women; mean age, 57.9 years; 41.0% non-Hispanic black; 51.9% with diabetes). Predictors BTP and B2M with a reciprocal transformation to reflect their associations with filtration, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr), measured GFR (mGFR) and a 4-marker composite score combining BTP, B2M, creatinine, and cystatin C. Predictors were standardized as z scores for comparisons across filtration markers. Outcomes ESRD, all-cause mortality, and new-onset cardiovascular disease. Results: Over a six-year median follow-up, 755 (21%) participants developed ESRD, 653 died, and 292 developed new-onset cardiovascular disease. BTP, B2M, and the 4-marker composite were independent predictors of ESRD and all-cause mortality, and B2M and the 4-marker composite of cardiovascular events, after multivariable adjustment. These associations were stronger than those observed for eGFRcr (p vs. eGFRcr ≤0.02). The 4-marker composite led to improvements in the C statistic and 2.5 year risk reclassification beyond eGFRcr for all outcomes. Limitations Filtration markers measured at one time point; mGFR available in subset of cohort. Conclusions BTP and B2M may contribute additional risk information beyond eGFRcr and the use of multiple-markers may improve risk prediction beyond this well-established marker of kidney function among persons with moderate CKD.