A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere 1 . These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe 2 . Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe 3 , because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so farsuggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century 4,5 , suggesting that climatedriven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.River floods are among the most costly natural hazards. Global annual average losses are estimated at US$104 billion 6 and are expected to increase with economic growth, urbanization and climatic change 2,7 . Physical arguments of increased heavy precipitation resulting from the enhanced water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere and

This paper provides a review of theoretical and practical aspects related to genetic management of forest trees. The implementation of international commitments on forest genetic diversity has been slow and partly neglected. Conservation of forest genetic diversity is still riddled with problems, and complexities of national legal and administrative structures. Europe is an example of a complex region where the distribution ranges of tree species extend across large geographical areas with profound environmental differences, and include many countries. Conservation of forest genetic diversity in Europe has been hampered by lack of common understanding on the management requirements for genetic conservation units of forest trees. The challenge resides in integrating scientific knowledge on conservation genetics into management of tree populations so that recommendations are feasible to implement across different countries. Here, we present pan-European minimum requirements for dynamic conservation units of forest genetic diversity. The units are natural or man-made tree populations which are managed for maintaining evolutionary processes and adaptive potential across generations. Each unit should have a designated status and a management plan, and one or more tree species recognized for as target species for genetic conservation. The minimum sizes of the units are set at 500, 50 or 15 reproducing individuals depending on tree species and conservation objectives. Furthermore, silvicultural interventions should be allowed to enhance genetic processes, as needed, and field inventories carried out to monitor regeneration and the population size. These minimum requirements are now used by 36 countries to improve management of forest genetic diversity.

We exposed seedlings of 12 Eucalyptus microtheca F. Muell. provenances to well-watered and waterstressed growing conditions in a greenhouse experiment and investigated the effects of drought on various plant properties in the provenances. We found significant variation in total biomass, height, root mass/foliage area ratio, foliage area/stem cross sectional area ratio, specific leaf area (SLA), water-use efficiency (WUE) and carbon isotope composition (δ 13 C) among the provenances. The observed inter-provenance variation was more pronounced in the water-stressed treatment than in the well-watered one. Drought increased root mass/foliage area ratio, foliage area/stem cross sectional area ratio, WUE, δ 13 C and decreased total biomass, height, transpiration and SLA. We also analysed relationships between plant properties and climate of native habitats of the provenances and found that most properties were strongly correlated with mean driest quarter rainfall. The correlation was positive for total biomass, height, transpiration and SLA and negative for root mass/foliage area ratio, foliage area/stem cross sectional area ratio, WUE and δ 13 C. Finally, we evaluated the intra-specific variation in foliage area/stem cross sectional area ratio in the context of tree hydraulic architecture: provenances from dry areas and trees grown under drought stress had more foliage per stem area ratio. However, their transpiration and the length of their hydraulic pathway were smaller and therefore the root to leaf water potential gradient might be smaller in these trees.

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.