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Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety.

On the eve of the 15th climate negotiations conference in Copenhagen,the pressure to assess all climate mitigation options is mounting. In this study, abio-physic model and a socio-economic model were designed and coupled to assessthe carbon sequestration potential of agricultural intensification in Senegal. Thebiophysicalmodel is a multiple linear regression, calibrated and tested on a dataset oflong-term agricultural trials established in West Africa. The socio-economic modelintegrates both financial and environmental costs related to considered practicechanges. Both models are spatially explicit and the resulting spatial patterns werecomputed and displayed over Senegal with a geographic information system. The national potential from large-scale intensification was assessed at 0.65–0.83 MtC.With regards to local-scaled intensification as local projects, the most profitable areaswere identified in agricultural expansion regions (especially Casamance), while theareas that meet the current financial additionality criteria of the Clean DevelopmentMechanism were located in the northern part of the Peanut Basin. Using the currentrelevant mode of carbon valuation (Certified Emission Reductions), environmentalbenefits are small compared to financial benefits. This picture is radically changedif “avoided deforestation”, a likely consequence of agricultural intensification, isaccounted for as the greenhouse gases sink capacity of projects increases by anaverage of a hundred-fold over Senegal

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