International audienceThis paper aims to develop a system dynamics model in order to formalize causal interdependencies between safety factors (technical, organizational and human). These factors define safety conditions in a complex industrial system. It is a systemic approach founded on the method of system dynamics and the case study is a storage unit for chemical products located in Morocco. System dynamics using VENSIM® software has been applied to assess the safety of the storage unit by modeling the activity of the industrial system. Through simulation, users can define deviant scenarios in order to improve safety of the industrial system and implement managerial tools involving organizational, technical and human factors
International audienceIn recent years, pirate attacks against shipping and oil field installations have become more frequent and more serious. This article proposes an innovative solution to the problem of offshore piracy from the perspective of the entire processing chain: from the detection of a potential threat to the implementation of a response. The response to an attack must take into account multiple variables: the characteristics of the threat and the potential target, existing protection tools, environmental constraints, etc. The potential of Bayesian networks is used to manage this large number of parameters and identify appropriate counter-measures
Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety.
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