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This study explored science-related variables that have an impact on the prediction of science achievement groups by applying the educational data mining (EDM) method of the random forest analysis to extract factors associated with students categorized in three different achievement groups (high, moderate, and low) in the Korean data from the 2015 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The 57 variables of science activities and learning in school collected from PISA questionnaires for students and parents were analyzed. Variables related to students’ past science activities, science teaching and learning methods, and environmental awareness were found to played important roles in predicting science achievement. When checking partial dependence plots for major variables, science activities and instructional strategies had a high probability of changing the prediction of an achievement group. This study focused on science-related contextual variables that can be improved through government policies and science teachers’ efforts in the classroom.

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This study investigates the predictors of science high-achievement group among Korean high school students, considering raw data of the students’ responses to PISA 2015. In particular, the factors differentiating the excellent group from the general group were analyzed using a random forest analysis with hybrid sampling and hyper-ensemble approach on the responses of 92 individual questions. The results revealed distinct gender-based patterns. Male students captured higher rankings in factors related to science-related reading at the age of 10 and experimental practices. Conversely, female students displayed a stronger correlation between high achievement and non-cognitive characteristics such as connecting the value of science subjects to their future careers. Despite the gender differences in the magnitude of increase in prediction probabilities and variations, their overall direction remained consistent. Notably, both male and female students who were introduced to science-related books around the age of 10 and were presently exposed to scientific literature exhibited a higher likelihood of belonging to the high-achievement group. These findings will aid the development of tailored education support plans for high-achieving students, facilitating the success of these students to foster a scientific potential and brighter future.