The aim of this paper is to shed more light on population aging by using indicators such as years of service and average years in retirement, since the most benefits from the Fund for Pension and Disability Insurance are paid for elderly. As a method for better understanding the structure of pensioners, we used the data on years one spends as employee before gaining pension benefits, so we could get better information about previous activity of retirees, but also to emphasize legal issues that have increased the number of early retirement recipients. Many countries do not allow early retirement, so the limitation of minimum years required for the early retirement is necessary for reduction of pension spending. Another important characteristic of the financial sustainability of the Fund for Pension and Disability Insurance are the average years in retirement. Given the fact that the life expectancy of the elderly is slightly increasing, it is realistic to expect longer use of pension of old-age and disability pensioners, who are on average younger. Apart from showing the level of financial sustainability of the fund, this indicator shows the characteristics of mortality in the country. Pension Fund data show certain development tendencies that will continue in the future because all processes related to population are long-term, including those related to pensioners that are beside socio-economic, influenced by demographic factors
Sudden increase in the number of live births after the Second World War due to an increase in fertility rates has led to the formation of cohorts with specific characteristics or baby boom generation. This generation is unique in the history of the demographic phenomenon that has affected and affects the functioning of many segments of society. The aim of this paper is to assess structure of baby boomers who are few years away from retirement, using demographic data. Impact of baby boomer age structure of current and future retirees is described with a graphical display of current and projected age pyramid of baby boomers. Demographic pattern that women live longer than men is evident in the projected pyramid. In addition, the number of baby boomers will lead to a "younger" old population. The imbalance in the number of men and women pensioners, as well as older cohorts of women and female baby boomers was analyzed. As a result, an increasing trend of women's age pensioners who are members of the baby boom generation was clearly observed, which is opposite to the older cohort of women who often were family pensioners. Different circumstances and conditions in which female boomers lived and worked will form a new "pension model" because they will gain their benefits as well as men, for the first time in significant number, unlike their mothers, which gained the right to retire after they become widows. Number of women age pensioners is getting greater comparing to men, as the result of changes in the economic activities of women in the last half of the 20th century. When baby boomers retire and exit the working population, this will create a vacuum, because the numerically smaller generations will enter working population, while the sudden and very shortly, the number of population older than 60 or 65 will increase, most of them will likely to acquire the right to a pension. It is undeniable that baby boomers had impact on demographic structure, but also on society as a whole. They have been extremely important factor of development of our country during their working career, they are healthier then previous generation and many of them possess the knowledge and experience gained by the years, so rigid prediction of future changes that will produce the retirement of this generation has no excuses. Retired baby boom generation will perhaps lead to new, better way of life in old age
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach – The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings – The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1°C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent (p<0.0001), 2.2 percent (p<0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p<0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value – Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade.
While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it’s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. „Prospective threshold“ is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world’s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953-2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men...
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