The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

Stanojević, Gorica; Stojilkovic, Jelena; Spalević, Aleksandra; Kokotovic, Vlasta

doi:10.1080/17477891.2014.932268

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Kyselý, 2004;Hutter et al, 2007;Kyselý and Kříž, 2008;Matzarakis et al, 2011;Stanojević et al, 2014). The highest relative increases during the individual heat periods exceeded 20%, which is also similar to other Central European studies (Kyselý, 2004;Páldy et al, 2005).…”

Section: Overall Long-term Heat Impacts On Mortalitysupporting

confidence: 75%

“…In recently published studies, excess mortality has also been evaluated separately during other extreme summer heat waves in various parts of Europe: for example in 2006, it was mainly in Western Europe (Fouillet et al, 2008;Monteiro et al, 2013;Knobová et al, 2014); in 2007, mainly in Central and Southeastern Europe (Overcenco, 2010;Páldy and Bobvos, 2010;Opopol et al, 2012;Bogdanović et al, 2013;Corobov et al, 2013;Stanojević et al, 2014); and in Central Europe, most recently in 2011 and 2012 (Páldy and Bobvos, 2012).…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Výberči

Švec

Faško

et al. 2015

Moravian Geographical Reports

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Section: Overall Long-term Heat Impacts On Mortalitysupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Výberči

Švec

Faško

et al. 2015

Moravian Geographical Reports

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“…Many thermal indices have been developed for the purpose of describing the complex conditions of heat exchange between the human body and its thermal environment (Fanger, 1970;Landsberg, 1972;Parsons, 2003). There are two meteorological parameter indices: the ones used for cold environment conditions, combining the air temperature and the wind velocity (Osczevski and Bluestein, 2005;Siple and Passel, 1945;), and the ones used for heat environment conditions combining the air temperature and humidity (Masterton and Richardson, 1979;Steadman, 1984;Yaglou and Minard, 1957). Considering their shortcomings, i.e., the fact that they are not universally applicable to all climatic regions (including different seasons), the dominance in the analysis of biothermal conditions and thermal stress over the last 30 years has been taken over by so-called heat budget indices (Blazejczyk, 1994;Höppe, 1999;Jendritzky et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in Serbia

Pecelj

Lukić

Filipović

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objective of this paper is to assess the bioclimatic conditions in Serbia during summer in order to identify biothermal heat hazard. Special emphasis is placed on the bioclimatic index UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), whose purpose is to evaluate the degree of thermal stress that the human body is exposed to. For this research, mean daily and hourly (07:00 and 14:00 CET) meteorological data from three weather stations (Zlatibor, Novi Sad and Niš) have been collected for the period from 1998 to 2017. In order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions, the thresholds of the daily UTCI (UTCI ≥38 ∘C, referred to as very strong heat stress, VSHS) at 14:00 CET are compared with the thresholds of daily maximum air temperature (tmax⁡≥35 ∘C, referred to as hot days, HDs), which are further termed as heat wave events (HWEs). The findings show that the UTCI heat stress category “very strong heat stress“ at 14:00 CET indicates heat waves. The most extreme heat wave events occurred in 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2017. Moreover, three HWEs at Niš that occurred in July 2007 lasted 3, 10 and 4 d. HWEs and very strong heat stress events (VSHSEs) recorded in July 2007 (lasted 10 d each), 2012 (lasted 9 and 12 d) and 2015 (lasted 7 and 10 d) were of the longest duration and are considered to be the indicators of biothermal heat hazard. The daily UTCI14 h heat stress becomes more extreme in terms of severity and heat wave duration up to very strong heat stress.

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“…There is, however, some evidence on the association between heat and health from urban settings in Serbia and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Stanojevic et al [ 24 ] estimated that 253 persons died due to heat waves in Belgrade during the summer of 2007, during which temperature records were broken in many monitoring stations in in the country. In the case of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the summer heat waves of 2007 resulted in more than 1000 excess deaths at the national level [ 25 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

Martínez¹,

Baccini²,

Ridder³

et al. 2016

BMC Public Health

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BackgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period.MethodsAfter ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact.ResultsOur estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability.ConclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3077-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

Cited by 15 publications

References 50 publications

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in Serbia

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

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