Variations and trends in extreme climate events have only recently received much attention. Exponentially increasing economic losses, coupled with an increase in deaths due to these events, have focused attention on the possibility that these events are increasing in frequency. One of the major problems in examining the climate record for changes in extremes is a lack of high-quality, long-term data. In some areas of the world increases in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be a decline. Based on this information increased ability to monitor and detect multidecadal variations and trends is critical to begin to detect any observed changes and understand their origins.

A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given.

Weather and climatic extremes can have serious and damaging effects on human society and infrastructure as well as on ecosystems and wildlife. Thus, they are usually the main focus of attention of the news media in reports on climate. There are some indications from observations concerning how climatic extremes may have changed in the past. Climate models show how they could change in the future either due to natural climate fluctuations or under conditions of greenhouse gas-induced warming. These observed and modeled changes relate directly to the understanding of socioeconomic and ecological impacts related to extremes. This is the first of five papers in the "Understanding Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes" series. The following series of five articles was motivated by a need to develop a more comprehensive assessment of changes in weather and extreme climate events. We were interested not only in the impact of extreme weather and climate events, but whether these events were changing in frequency or intensity along with their impacts. Impacts were viewed in terms of loosely managed ecosystems where wildlife flourishes, as well as socioeconomic systems and more heavily managed ecosystems such as agriculture. From a climate perspective , this included a focus both on the historical record and projections for future change. During the summer of 1998 a group of nearly 30 climate scientists, social scientists, and biologists met for 10 days at the Aspen Global Change Institute to discuss what we now know, and how we could reduce some of our major uncertainties. These articles summarize much of the work during that meeting and new information since the meeting.

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing daily variability of surface temperature in winter, and increasing variability of northern midlatitude summer surface temperatures. This reconfirmation of previous results gives an increased confidence in the credibility of the models, though agreement among models does not guarantee those changes will occur. New results since the IPCC Second Assessment Report indicate a possible increase of extreme heat stress events in a warmer climate, an increase of cooling degree days and decrease in heating degree days, an increase of precipitation extremes such that there is a decrease in return periods for 20-yr extreme precipitation events, and more detailed analyses of possible changes in 20-yr return values for extreme maximum and minimum temperatures. Additionally, recent studies are now addressing interannual and synoptic time and space scale processes that affect weather and climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, El Nino effects, and extratropical storms. However, current climate models are not yet in agreement with respect to possible future changes in such features. This is the third of five papers in the "Understanding Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes" series.

A comprehensive climatology of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is presented. Storm tracks and intensities over a period from 1899 to 1996 are examined. More detailed statistics are presented only for the most reliable period of record, beginning in 1950. Since 1950, 46% of Atlantic tropical cyclones transitioned to the extratropical phase. The coastal Atlantic areas most likely to be impacted by a transitioning tropical cyclone are the northeast United States and the Canadian Maritimes (1-2 storms per year), and western Europe (once every 1-2 yr). Extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones represent 50% of landfalling tropical cyclones on the east coasts of the United States and Canada, and the west coast of Europe, combined. The likelihood that a tropical cyclone will transition increases toward the second half of the tropical season, with October having the highest probability (50%) of transition. Atlantic transition occurs from 24Њ to 55ЊN, with a much higher frequency between the latitudes of 35Њ and 45ЊN. Transition occurs at lower latitudes at the beginning and end of the season, and at higher latitudes during the season peak (August-September). This seasonal cycle of transition location is the result of competing factors. The delayed warming of the Atlantic Ocean forces the location of transition northward late in the season, since the critical threshold for tropical development is pushed northward. Conversely, the climatologically favored region for baroclinic development expands southward late in the season, pinching off the oceanic surface area over which tropical development can occur. The relative positions of these two areas define the typical life cycle of a transitioning tropical cyclone: tropical intensification, tropical decay, extratropical transition and intensification, occlusion. Using a synthesis of National Hurricane Center Best-Track data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses data, the intensity changes during and after transition are evaluated. It is extremely rare for a transitioning tropical cyclone to regain (in the extratropical phase) its peak (tropical phase) intensity. However, of the 61 transitioning tropical storms during the period 1979-93, 51% underwent post-transition intensification. Over 60% of cyclones that underwent post-transition intensification originated south of 20ЊN. In contrast, 90% of tropical cyclones that underwent post-transition decay originated north of 20ЊN. This suggests that strong baroclinic characteristics during formation are not necessary for strong post-transition development; in fact, they appear to hinder post-transition intensification and, therefore, the post-transition life span of the cyclone itself.