An objectively defined three-dimensional cyclone phase space is proposed and explored. Cyclone phase is described using the parameters of storm-motion-relative thickness asymmetry (symmetric/nonfrontal versus asymmetric/frontal) and vertical derivative of horizontal height gradient (cold-versus warm-core structure via the thermal wind relationship). A cyclone's life cycle can be analyzed within this phase space, providing substantial insight into the cyclone structural evolution. An objective classification of cyclone phase is possible, unifying the basic structural description of tropical, extratropical, and hybrid cyclones into a continuum. Stereotypical symmetric warm-core (tropical cyclone) and asymmetric cold-core (extratropical cyclone) life cycles are illustrated using 1Њ Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) operational analyses and 2.5Њ NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The transitions between cyclone phases are clearly illustrated within the phase space, including extratropical transition, subtropical and tropical transition, and the development of warm seclusions within extratropical cyclones. The planet's northwestern hemisphere inhabitance of the proposed phase space between 1980 and 1999 is examined using NCEP-NCAR 2.5Њ reanalyses. Despite the inability to adequately resolve tropical cyclones at the coarse 2.5Њ resolution, warm-core cyclones (primarily warm-seclusion extratropical cyclones) have a mean intensity that is 10 hPa lower than that of cold-core cyclones. Warm-core cyclones also have a much larger variability for intensity distribution, with an increased occurrence of lower MSLP. Further, at 2.5Њ resolution the lowest analyzed MSLP for a warm-core cyclone was 14 hPa lower than that for a cyclone that remains cold core. These results suggest that cyclones that maintain solely a cold-core structure (no warm-seclusion or tropical development) may be associated with a significantly weaker minimum observed intensity at 2.5Њ resolution, although further examination using higher-resolution data is required to refine this. Phase diagrams are being produced in real time to improve the forecasting of cyclone phase evolution and phase transitions, and to provide measures of phase predictability through ensembling of multiple models. The likelihood of warm-core development in cyclones can be anticipated by applying the diagnostics to various model forecasts, illuminating the potential for large intensity changes when the explicit model intensity forecasts may be insufficient.
A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given.
A comprehensive climatology of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is presented. Storm tracks and intensities over a period from 1899 to 1996 are examined. More detailed statistics are presented only for the most reliable period of record, beginning in 1950. Since 1950, 46% of Atlantic tropical cyclones transitioned to the extratropical phase. The coastal Atlantic areas most likely to be impacted by a transitioning tropical cyclone are the northeast United States and the Canadian Maritimes (1-2 storms per year), and western Europe (once every 1-2 yr). Extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones represent 50% of landfalling tropical cyclones on the east coasts of the United States and Canada, and the west coast of Europe, combined. The likelihood that a tropical cyclone will transition increases toward the second half of the tropical season, with October having the highest probability (50%) of transition. Atlantic transition occurs from 24Њ to 55ЊN, with a much higher frequency between the latitudes of 35Њ and 45ЊN. Transition occurs at lower latitudes at the beginning and end of the season, and at higher latitudes during the season peak (August-September). This seasonal cycle of transition location is the result of competing factors. The delayed warming of the Atlantic Ocean forces the location of transition northward late in the season, since the critical threshold for tropical development is pushed northward. Conversely, the climatologically favored region for baroclinic development expands southward late in the season, pinching off the oceanic surface area over which tropical development can occur. The relative positions of these two areas define the typical life cycle of a transitioning tropical cyclone: tropical intensification, tropical decay, extratropical transition and intensification, occlusion. Using a synthesis of National Hurricane Center Best-Track data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses data, the intensity changes during and after transition are evaluated. It is extremely rare for a transitioning tropical cyclone to regain (in the extratropical phase) its peak (tropical phase) intensity. However, of the 61 transitioning tropical storms during the period 1979-93, 51% underwent post-transition intensification. Over 60% of cyclones that underwent post-transition intensification originated south of 20ЊN. In contrast, 90% of tropical cyclones that underwent post-transition decay originated north of 20ЊN. This suggests that strong baroclinic characteristics during formation are not necessary for strong post-transition development; in fact, they appear to hinder post-transition intensification and, therefore, the post-transition life span of the cyclone itself.
Fenestration of today is continuously being developed into the fenestration of tomorrow, hence offering a steadily increase of daylight and solar energy utilization and control, and at the same time providing a necessary climate screen with a satisfactory thermal comfort. Within this work a state-of-the-art market review of the best performing fenestration products has been carried out, along with an overview of possible future research opportunities for the fenestration industry. The focus of the market review was low thermal transmittance (Uvalue). The lowest centre-of-glass U g -values found was 0.28 W/(m 2 K) and 0.30 W/(m 2 K), which was from a suspended coating glazing product and an aerogel glazing product, respectively. However, the majority of high performance products found were triple glazed. The lowest frame U-value was 0.61 W/(m 2 K). Vacuum glazing, smart windows, solar cell glazing, window frames, self-cleaning glazing, low-emissivity coatings and spacers were also reviewed, thus also representing possibilities for controlling and harvesting the solar radiation energy. Currently, vacuum glazing, new spacer materials and solutions, electrochromic windows and aerogel glazing seem to have the largest potential for improving the thermal performance and daylight and solar properties in fenestration products. Aerogel glazing has the lowest potential U-values, ~ 0.1 W/(m 2 K), but requires further work to improve the visible transmittance. Electrochromic vaccum glazing and evacuated aerogel glazing are two vacuum related solutions which have a large potential. There may also be opportunities for completely new material innovations which could revolutionize the fenestration industry.
Forty-six percent of Atlantic tropical storms undergo a process of extratropical transition (ET) in which the storm evolves from a tropical cyclone to a baroclinic system. In this paper, the structural evolution of a base set of 61 Atlantic tropical cyclones that underwent extratropical transition between 1979 and 1993 is examined. Objective indicators for the onset and completion of transition are empirically determined using National Hurricane Center (NHC) best-track data, ECMWF 1.125Њ ϫ 1.125Њ reanalyses, and operational NCEP Aviation Model (AVN) and U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) numerical analyses. An independent set of storms from 1998 to 2001 are used to provide a preliminary evaluation of the proposed onset and completion diagnostics. Extratropical transition onset is declared when the storm becomes consistently asymmetric, as measured by the 900-600-hPa thickness asymmetry centered on the storm track. Completion of the ET process is identified using a measure of the thermal wind over the same layer. These diagnostics are consistent with the definitions of tropical and baroclinic cyclones and are readily calculable using operational analyses. Comparisons of these objective measures of ET timing with more detailed three-dimensional analyses and NHC classifications show good agreement.
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