Although recent articles state that jellyfish populations are increasing, most available evidence shows that jellyfish abundances fluctuate with climatic cycles. Reports of increasing problems with jellyfish, especially in East Asia, are too recent to exclude decadal climate cycles. Jellyfish are infamous for their direct negative effects on human enterprise; specifically, they interfere with tourism by stinging swimmers, fishing by clogging nets, aquaculture by killing fish in net-pens and power plants by clogging cooling-water intake screens. They also have indirect effects on fisheries by feeding on zooplankton and ichthyoplankton, and, therefore, are predators and potential competitors of fish. Ironically, many human activities may contribute to increases in jellyfish populations in coastal waters. Increased jellyfish and ctenophore populations often are associated with warming caused by climate changes and possibly power plant thermal effluents. Jellyfish may benefit from eutrophication, which can increase small-zooplankton abundance, turbidity and hypoxia, all conditions that may favor jellyfish over fish. Fishing activities can remove predators of jellyfish and zooplanktivorous fish competitors as well as cause large-scale ecosystem changes that improve conditions for jellyfish. Aquaculture releases millions of jellyfish into Asian coastal waters yearly to enhance the jellyfish fishery. Aquaculture and other marine structures provide favorable habitat for the benthic stages of jellyfish. Changes in the hydrological regime due to dams and other construction can change the salinity to favor jellyfish. Accidental introductions of non-native gelatinous species into disturbed ecosystems have led to blooms with serious consequences. In many coastal areas, most of these environmental changes occur simultaneously. We summarize cases of problem jellyfish blooms and the evidence for anthropogenic habitat disruptions that may have caused them. Rapid development in East Asia makes that region especially vulnerable to escalating problems. We conclude that human effects on coastal environments are certain to increase, and jellyfish blooms may increase as a consequence.

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Much speculation and some evidence suggest that jellyfish and ctenophore populations have increased in recent decades. Unfortunately, few past records exist with which to compare current populations, and our knowledge of how environmental factors affect jellyfish population size is meagre. Human enterprise has wrought many changes in the ocean that are hypothesized to favour jellyfish, including eutrophication, reduction of fish stocks, and global warming. In addition to anthropogenic changes, natural climate cycles may affect jellyfish populations. Records of jellyfish and ctenophore abundance that appear to be related to indices of climate variations (temperature, salinity, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation) are reviewed. In eleven species studied from subtropical, temperate and subarctic environments, warm temperatures were related to large population sizes; three scyphozoan species in the North Sea, and one mesopelagic hydromedusan were exceptions to that trend. One tropical scyphomedusan species was decimated by unusually warm, salty El Niño conditions in Palau. Because climate changes have complex ecosystem-level effects, the proximate causes of jellyfish increases are difficult to deduce. Therefore, the effects of temperature, salinity and prey on asexual production of new medusae from the benthic polyps of scyphomedusae and hydromedusae also are reviewed. Experiments on temperate species show greater and more rapid production of medusae at warmer temperatures. Salinity also had significant effects, and was especially important for estuarine species. Temperature and salinity affect asexual reproduction rates directly through metabolism, and indirectly through prey capture. Ocean warming may shift the distributions, expand the seasonal occurrence, and increase the abundances of temperate-boreal species. Populations living near their thermal maximum may suffer negative consequences of warming.

Human populations have been concentrated along and exploiting the coastal zones for millennia. Ofregions with the highest human impacts on the oceans (Halpern et al. 2008), 6 of the top 10 have recently experienced blooms or problems with jellies. I review the time lines of human population growth and their effects on the coastal environment. I explore evidence suggesting that human activities--specifically, seafood harvest, eutrophication, hard substrate additions, transport ofnonindigenous species, aquaculture, and climate change--may benefit jelly populations. Direct evidence is lacking for most of these factors; however, numerous correlations show abundant jellies in areas with warm temperatures and low forage fish populations. Jelly populations fluctuate in approximately 10- and approximately 20-year cycles in concert with solar and climate cycles. Global warming will provide a rising baseline against which climate cycles will cause fluctuations in jelly populations. The probable acceleration of anthropogenic effects may lead to further problems with jellies.

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.