Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

A single unattached kinetochore can delay anaphase onset in mitotic tissue culture cells (Rieder, C.L., A. Schultz, R. Cole, G. Sluder. 1994. J. Cell Biol. 127:1301–1310). Kinetochores in vertebrate cells contain multiple binding sites, and tension is generated at kinetochores after attachment to the plus ends of spindle microtubules. Checkpoint component Mad2 localizes selectively to unattached kinetochores (Chen, R.-H., J.C. Waters, E.D. Salmon, and A.W. Murray. 1996. Science. 274:242–246; Li, Y., and R. Benezra. Science. 274: 246–248) and disappears from kinetochores by late metaphase, when chromosomes are properly attached to the spindle. Here we show that Mad2 is lost from PtK1 cell kinetochores as they accumulate microtubules and re-binds previously attached kinetochores after microtubules are depolymerized with nocodazole. We also show that when kinetochore microtubules in metaphase cells are stabilized with taxol, tension at kinetochores is lost. The phosphoepitope 3f3/2, which has been shown to become dephosphorylated in response to tension at the kinetochore (Nicklas, R.B., S.C. Ward, and G.J. Gorbsky. 1995. J. Cell Biol. 130:929–939), is phosphorylated on all 22 kinetochores after tension is reduced with taxol. In contrast, Mad2 only localized to an average of 2.6 out of the 22 kinetochores in taxol-treated PtK1 cells. Therefore, loss of tension at kinetochores occupied by microtubules is insufficient to induce Mad2 to accumulate on kinetochores, whereas unattached kinetochores consistently bind Mad2. We also found that microinjecting antibodies against Mad2 caused cells arrested with taxol to exit mitosis after ∼12 min, while uninjected cells remained in mitosis for at least 6 h, demonstrating that Mad2 is necessary for maintenance of the taxol-induced mitotic arrest. We conclude that kinetochore microtubule attachment stops the Mad2 interactions at kinetochores which are important for inhibiting anaphase onset.

The spindle assembly checkpoint delays anaphase until all chromosomes are attached to a mitotic spindle. The mad (mitotic arrest-deficient) and bub (budding uninhibited by benzimidazole) mutants of budding yeast lack this checkpoint and fail to arrest the cell cycle when microtubules are depolymerized. A frog homolog of MAD2 (XMAD2) was isolated and found to play an essential role in the spindle assembly checkpoint in frog egg extracts. XMAD2 protein associated with unattached kinetochores in prometaphase and in nocodazole-treated cells and disappeared from kinetochores at metaphase in untreated cells, suggesting that XMAD2 plays a role in the activation of the checkpoint by unattached kinetochores. This study furthers understanding of the mechanism of cell cycle checkpoints in metazoa and provides a marker for studying the role of the spindle assembly checkpoint in the genetic instability of tumors.

Drosophila MEI-S332 and fungal Sgo1 genes are essential for sister centromere cohesion in meiosis I. We demonstrate that the related vertebrate Sgo localizes to kinetochores and is required to prevent premature sister centromere separation in mitosis, thus providing an explanation for the differential cohesion observed between the arms and the centromeres of mitotic sister chromatids. Sgo is degraded by the anaphase-promoting complex, allowing the separation of sister centromeres in anaphase. Intriguingly, we show that Sgo interacts strongly with microtubules in vitro and that it regulates kinetochore microtubule stability in vivo, consistent with a direct microtubule interaction. Sgo is thus critical for mitotic progression and chromosome segregation and provides an unexpected link between sister centromere cohesion and microtubule interactions at kinetochores.