Machine-coded datasets likely represent the future of event data analysis. We assess the use of one of these datasets-Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT)-for the micro-level study of political violence by comparing it to two hand-coded conflict event datasets. Our findings indicate that GDELT should be used with caution for geospatial analyses at the subnational level: its overall correlation with hand-coded data is mediocre, and at the local level major issues of geographic bias exist in how events are reported. Overall, our findings suggest that due to these issues, researchers studying local conflict processes may want to wait for a more reliable geocoding method before relying too heavily on this set of machine-coded data.

No abstract

The personal characteristics of political elites play an important role in British elections. While the personalisation of the media's election coverage has been the subject of much debate, we know less about the conditions under which voters receive personalised messages directly from elites during the campaign. In this paper, we use a new dataset that includes more than 3,300 local communications from the 2015 general election to explore variation in the personalisation of campaign messaging. We find that there is systemic variation in terms of where photographs of party leaders are included in election communications, which provides further evidence that campaign messages are deployed strategically to portray the candidateand their partyin the best possible light.

Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by analyzing how civil wars diffuse in multiethnic states. Our theory outlines two motivation and two opportunity mechanisms that trigger additional ethnic rebellions in the same state. First, ongoing civil wars motivate members of other ethnic groups to mobilize in reaction to the negative externalities of nearby conflict. Second, ethnic groups emulate nearby rebel groups as a means of addressing preexisting grievances. Third, fighting multiple civil wars drains state capacity, opening the door for additional challengers to rebel against the government. Finally, long-lasting civil wars signal that the state is unable to defeat active rebels, thus creating incentives for new challengers to take up arms. We test our mechanisms in all multiethnic states with a history of armed conflict between 1946 and 2006. Using Geographic Information Systems, we construct overlap and minimum distance measures between ethnic groups' settlement patterns and conflict zones. Our statistical analysis indicates that new ethnic civil war onsets are more likely in the vicinity of ongoing armed conflicts. Ethnic civil wars also diffuse as governments face an increasing number of rebels and longer rebellions.