Background This study aimed to investigate the associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in the UK Biobank Cohort. Methods This observational prospective study evaluated 60 298 participants aged 40 years or older. We used the NOVA classification system to identify and categorize UPF. The associations among UPF consumption, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and all-cause mortality were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Dose–response analysis of UPF consumption and CVD incidence and mortality was performed using a restricted cubic spline. Results After a median follow-up of 10.9 years, 6048 participants (10.0%) experienced CVD events, and 5327 (8.8%) and 1503 (2.5%) experienced coronary heart and cerebrovascular diseases, respectively. There were 2590 (4.3%) deaths, of which 384 (0.6%) deaths were caused by CVD. A higher intake of UPF was associated with a higher risk of CVD and all-cause mortality (all P < 0.001). A higher intake of UPF was associated with a higher risk of CVD [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09–1.26], coronary heart disease (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07–1.25), cerebrovascular disease (HR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.13–1.50) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09–1.36). The association of UPF consumption with a range of CVD incidents and all-cause mortality was monotonic (all P for non-linearity > 0.30). Conclusions A higher proportion of UPF consumption was associated with CVD and all-cause mortality. Thus, actions to limit UPF consumption should be incorporated into the CVD and all-cause mortality prevention recommendations.

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There have been few investigations of cancer prognosis models based on Bayesian hierarchical models. In this study, we used a novel Bayesian method to screen mRNAs and estimate the effects of mRNAs on the prognosis of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. Based on the identified mRNAs, we can build a prognostic model combining mRNAs and clinical features, allowing us to explore new molecules with the potential to predict the prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma. The mRNA data (n = 594) and clinical data (n = 470) for lung adenocarcinoma were obtained from the TCGA database. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, and the Bayesian hierarchical Cox proportional hazards model were used to explore the mRNAs related to the prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent markers. The prediction performance of the prognostic model was evaluated not only by the internal cross-validation but also by the external validation based on the GEO dataset (n = 437). With the Bayesian hierarchical Cox proportional hazards model, a 14-gene signature that included CPS1, CTPS2, DARS2, IGFBP3, MCM5, MCM7, NME4, NT5E, PLK1, POLR3G, PTTG1, SERPINB5, TXNRD1, and TYMS was established to predict overall survival in lung adenocarcinoma. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the 14-gene signature (HR 3.960, 95% CI 2.710–5.786), T classification (T1, reference; T3, HR 1.925, 95% CI 1.104–3.355) and N classification (N0, reference; N1, HR 2.212, 95% CI 1.520–3.220; N2, HR 2.260, 95% CI 1.499–3.409) were independent predictors. The C-index of the model was 0.733 and 0.735, respectively, after performing cross-validation and external validation, a nomogram was provided for better prediction in clinical application. Bayesian hierarchical Cox proportional hazards models can be used to integrate high-dimensional omics information into a prediction model for lung adenocarcinoma to improve the prognostic prediction and discover potential targets. This approach may be a powerful predictive tool for clinicians treating malignant tumours.

With the development of high-throughput biological techniques, high-dimensional omics data have emerged. These molecular data provide a solid foundation for precision medicine and prognostic prediction of cancer. Bayesian methods contribute to constructing prognostic models with complex relationships in omics and improving performance by introducing different prior distribution, which is suitable for modelling the high-dimensional data involved. Using different omics, several Bayesian hierarchical approaches have been proposed for variable selection and model construction. In particular, the Bayesian methods of multi-omics integration have also been consistently proposed in recent years. Compared with single-omics, multi-omics integration modelling will contribute to improving predictive performance, gaining insights into the underlying mechanisms of tumour occurrence and development, and the discovery of more reliable biomarkers. In this work, we present a review of current proposed Bayesian approaches in prognostic prediction modelling in cancer.

Background Although studies have shown that sleep quality (duration) is associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), most of these studies have been small-sized and targeted at young and middle-aged adults. In addition, few studies have explored the path mechanism of sleep disorders leading to impaired HRQoL. Objectives This study aimed to determine the association between sleep quality and duration and HRQoL among the elderly in the United Kingdom, assess whether depression mediated the association, and explore the role of physical activity (PA) in the path association. Methods Data were extracted from the baseline survey of the UK Biobank, a large prospective cohort study enrolling more than 500,000 participants, of which 52,551 older adults (aged ≥60 years) were included in the study. HRQoL was assessed using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions. Tobit and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the association between sleep quality and duration and HRQoL. The mediating and moderated mediation models were estimated using the PROCESS macro and MEDCURVE macro. Results The Tobit model showed that the elderly with short or long sleep duration (β = − 0.062, 95% confidence interval [CI] = − 0.071 to − 0.053; β = − 0.072, 95% CI = − 0.086 to − 0.058) had worse HRQoL after adjusting potential covariates. In the logistic regression models, we found an inverted U-shaped association between sleep duration and HRQoL. Moreover, a significant positive association was observed between sleep quality and HRQoL (all P < 0.05). The results also revealed that depression mediated the association between sleep disorders and HRQoL (sleep quality: β = 0.008, 95% CI = 0.007–0.010; sleep duration: θ = 0.001 [mean], 95% CI = 0.001–0.002). Furthermore, PA moderated all paths among sleep quality and duration, depression, and HRQoL, and greater effects were observed in the elderly with lower PA levels. Conclusions The findings show that poor sleep quality and duration were independently associated with worse HRQoL among the elderly in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, PA buffers the mediating effect of depression and adverse effects of sleep disorders on HRQoL. It is essential to properly increase PA and provide early intervention for depression in the elderly with sleep disorders to improve their HRQoL.