The availability of refuelling locations for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is an important factor that drivers consider before adopting an AFV; thus, the layout of initial filling stations for AFVs will influence the adoption of AFVs. This paper presents a training system for optimising the layout of initial filling stations for AFVs by linking an agent-based model of the adoption of AFVs with a real city/area's road network, as well as the city/area's social and economic background. In the agent-based model, two types of agents (driver agents and station owner agents) interact with each other in a city/area's road network, stored in a GIS (Geographic Information System). With simulation scenario analyses and a genetic algorithm, the training system presented in this paper can help decision makers determine close-to-optimal layouts for initial AFV filling stations. This paper also presents a case study of the application of the training system that analyses the layout of fast-charging or battery-changing stations for the promotion of electric vehicles adoption in Shanghai.

The number of refuelling stations for AFVs (alternative fuel vehicles) is limited during the early stages of the diffusion of AFVs. Different layouts of these initial stations will result in different degrees of driver concern regarding refuelling and will therefore influence individuals' decisions to adopt AFVs. The question becomes "what is an optimal layout for these initial stations? Should it target all drivers or just a portion of them, and if so, which portion?" Further, how does the number of initial AFV refuelling stations influence the adoption of AFVs? This paper explores these questions with agent-based simulations. Using Shanghai as the basis of computational experiments, this paper first generates different optimal layouts using a genetic algorithm to minimize the total concern of different targeted drivers and then conducts agent-based simulations on the diffusion of AFVs with these layouts. The main findings of this study are that (1) targeting drivers in the city centre can induce the fastest diffusion of AFVs if AFV technologies are mature and (2) it is possible that a larger number of initial AFV refuelling stations may result in slower diffusion of AFVs because these initial stations may not have sufficient customers to survive. The simulations can provide some insights for cities that are trying to promote the diffusion of AFVs.

This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed.

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