Sirex nitobei, an Asian native wood wasp species, is a major pest in coniferous commercial forestry, infesting and weakening conifers through its obligate mutualism with a wood-rotting fungus species. The combination of wood wasp larvae and obligate mutualistic fungus causes the breakdown of plant vascular tissue, leading to the weakening of the plant and eventually to death, as well as a high economic cost in commercial forestry. Since it was first recorded in China in the early 1980s, S. nitobei has widely spread and become successfully established. Despite its extensive distribution range, little is known about the factors influencing current and future distribution patterns for potential pest control and monitoring. We used a maximum entropy model in conjunction with climate variables and shared socio-economic pathways to predict the current and future distribution of S. nitobei in China. We used the jackknife method and correlation analysis to select the bioclimatic and environmental variables that influence the geographic distribution of S. nitobei, which resulted in the inclusion of the monthly total precipitation in July (prec7), the monthly average maximum temperature in February (tmax2), the monthly average minimum temperature in July (tmin7), the monthly total precipitation in December (prec12), and isothermality (bio3). We found that precipitation and temperature influenced the potentially suitable areas, as predicted by the maximum entropy model. Moreover, the association of the fungus, the wood wasp, and the host plant impacts are related to availability of moisture and temperature, where moisture affects the growth of the fungus, and temperature influences the emergence, development and growth of larvae. Under the current climate conditions, the total potential suitable areas increased by 18.74%, while highly suitable and moderately suitable areas increased by 28.35 and 44.05%, respectively, under the 2081–2100 ssp245, 370 scenarios. Favorable conditions under climate change, low rainfall, and high temperature will favor the speedy larval development, the growth of its obligate nutritional fungal mutualist and the ability of S. nitobei to rapidly spread in previously unsuitable areas.

Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a polyphagous moth species that mainly damages various crops and ornamental plants. This widely distributed pest is particularly a nuisance in Pakistan where it damages many crops, e.g., wheat and vegetables. To assess the risk of damage by this moth, we used the CLIMEX model to predict the distribution of A. ipsilon under current and future climatic conditions. Using the literature data, we collected information on the biology and ecology of A. ipsilon relevant for modelling the distribution of this species in Pakistan and worldwide under current and future climatic conditions. Our results revealed that under future climatic scenarios, the highly favourable habitat area of A. ipsilon (ecoclimatic index EI > 30) would decrease globally from 19% at present to 14% in the future, and the moderately favourable habitat area (0 < EI ≤ 15) would increase from 21 to 29%. We found that the northern areas of Pakistan will become highly suitable for the establishment of A. ipsilon. Under the current climatic conditions, the optimal habitats of A. ipsilon (EI > 30) comprised 10% and moderately favourable habitats (EI < 17) accounted for 25% of the total land area in Pakistan. Under future climatic scenarios, the optimal habitat area of the moth in Pakistan could decrease to 5% and the moderately favourable habitat area could cover 63% of the entire land area. The results can be applied in the protection of various crops and ornamental plants against A. ipsilon in Pakistan as well as worldwide.

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34′ and 65°39′ N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Exotic pests have caused huge losses to agriculture, forestry, and human health. Analyzing information on all concerned pest species and their origin will help to improve the inspection procedures and will help to clarify the relative risks of imported cargo and formulate international trade policies. Records of intercepted pests from wood packaging materials (WPM) from 2003 to 2016 in the China Port Information Network (CPIN) database were analyzed. Results showed that the number of intercepted pests from WPM was lowest in the first quarter and highest in the fourth one. The total number of interceptions increased each year, with 53.33% of intercepted insects followed by nematodes (31.54%). The original continent of most intercepted pests was Asia (49.29%). Xylophagous insects were primarily intercepted from Southeast Asian countries, whereas nematodes were primarily intercepted from Korea, Australia, Mexico, and other countries. WPM interception records were mainly concentrated in China’s coastal inspection stations (98.7%), with the largest number of interceptions documented in Shanghai, followed by the inspection stations of Jiangsu Province. The proportion of pest taxa intercepted by the Chinese provinces’ stations each year is becoming increasingly balanced. The number of pest disposal treatment measures for intercepted cargoes with dead non-quarantine pests increased significantly from 2012 to 2016. This reflects the fact that Chinese customs inspection stations are becoming increasingly scientific and standardizing the interception and treatment of WPM pests. The issues reflected in the database, with a view to providing a reference for future work by customs officers and researchers.

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