In all cases accepted manuscripts should:  link to the formal publication via its DOI  bear a CC-BY-NC-ND license -this is easy to do, click here to find out how  if aggregated with other manuscripts, for example in a repository or other site, be shared in alignment with our hosting policy  not be added to or enhanced in any way to appear more like, or to substitute for, the published journal article Embargo ISSN AbstractIn ungauged catchments or catchments without sufficient streamflow data, derived flood frequency methods are often applied to provide the basis for flood risk assessment. The most commonly used event-based methods, such as design storm and joint probability approaches are able to give fast estimation, but can also lead to prediction bias due to the limitations of inherent assumptions and difficulties in obtaining input information (rainfall and catchment wetness) related to events that cause extreme floods. An alternative method is a long continuous simulation which produces more accurate predictions, but at the cost of massive computational time. In this study a hybrid method was developed to make the best use of both event-based and continuous approaches. The method uses a short continuous simulation to provide inputs for a rainfall-runoff model running in an event-based fashion. Preprint submitted to Journal of Hydrology October 8, 2013The total probability theorem is then combined with the peak over threshold method to estimate annual flood distribution. A synthetic case study demonstrates the efficacy of this procedure compared with existing methods of estimating annual flood distribution. The main advantage of the hybrid method is that it provides estimates of the flood frequency distribution with an accuracy similar to the continuous simulation approach, but with dramatically reduced computation time.

The rise of online shopping cart–tracking technologies enables new opportunities for e-commerce cart targeting (ECT). However, practitioners might target shoppers who have short-listed products in their digital carts without fully considering how ECT designs interact with consumer mindsets in online shopping stages. The authors find that ECT has a substantial impact on consumer purchases, inducing a 29.9% higher purchase rate than e-commerce targeting without carts. Moreover, this incremental impact is moderated: the ECT design with a price incentive amplifies the impact, but the same price incentive leads to ineffective e-commerce targeting without carts. By contrast, a scarcity message attenuates the impact but significantly boosts purchase responses to targeting without carts. Interestingly, the costless scarcity nudge is approximately 2.3 times more effective than the costly price incentive in the early shopping stage without carts, whereas a price incentive is 11.4 times more effective than the scarcity message in the late stage with carts. The authors also leverage a causal forest algorithm that can learn purchase response heterogeneity to develop a practical scheme of optimizing ECT. These findings empower managers to prudently target consumer shopping interests embedded in digital carts in order to capitalize new opportunities in e-commerce.

Consumers often abandon e-commerce carts, so companies are shifting their online advertising budgets to immediate e-commerce cart retargeting (ECR). They presume that early reminder ads, relative to late ones, generate more click-throughs and web revisits. The authors develop a conceptual framework of the double-edged effects of ECR ads and empirically support it with a multistudy, multisetting design. Study 1 involves two field experiments on over 40,500 customers who are randomized to either receive an ECR ad via email and app channels (treatment) or not receive it (control) across different hourly blocks after cart abandonment. The authors find that customers who received an early ECR ad within 30 minutes to one hour after cart abandonment are less likely to make a purchase compared with the control. These findings reveal a causal negative incremental impact of immediate retargeting. In other words, delivering ECR ads too early can engender worse purchase rates than without delivering them, thus wasting online advertising budgets. By contrast, a late ECR ad received one to three days after cart abandonment has a positive incremental impact on customer purchases. In Study 2, another field experiment on 23,900 customers not only replicates the double-edged impact of ECR ads delivered by mobile short message service but also explores cart characteristics that amplify both the negative impact of early ECR ads and positive impact of late ECR ads. These findings offer novel insights into customer responses to online retargeted ads for researchers and managers alike.

Organic farming (OF) has been believed to be capable of curtailing some hazardous effects associated with chemical farming (CF). However, debates also exist on whether OF can feed a world with increasing human population. We hypothesized that some improvements on OF may produce adequate crops and reduce environmental pollutions from CF. This paper makes comparative analysis of crop yield, soil organic matter and economic benefits within the practice on Biodiversity Management of Organic Farming (BMOF) at Hongyi Organic Farm (HOF) over eight years and between BMOF and CF. Linking crop production with livestock to maximal uses of by-products from each production and avoid xenobiotic chemicals, we have achieved beneficial improvement in soil properties, effective pest and weed control, and increased crop yields. After eight years experiment, we have obtained a gradual but stable increase in crop yields with a 9.6-fold increase of net income. The net income of HOF was 258,827 dollars and 24,423 dollars in 2014 and 2007 respectively. Thus, BMOF can not only feed more population, but also increase adaptive capacity of agriculture ecosystems and gain much higher economic benefits.