We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
RESULTSAmong the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
CONCLUSIONSOn the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.) a bs tr ac t
Early Transmission Dynamics
Covid-19 CasesTo rapidly communicate information on the global clinical effort against Covid-19, the Journal has initiated a series of case reports that offer important teaching points or novel findings. The case reports should be viewed as observations rather than as recommendations for evaluation or treatment. In the interest of timeliness, these reports are evaluated by in-house editors, with peer review reserved for key points as needed.
Coagulopathy and Antiphospholipid Antibodies in Patients with Covid-19We describe a patient with Covid-19 and clinically significant coagulopathy, antiphospholipid antibodies, and multiple infarcts. He was one of three patients with these findings in an intensive care unit designated for patients with Covid-19. This unit, which was managed by a multidisciplinary team from Peking Union Medical College Hospital in the Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, was set up on an emergency basis to accept the most critically ill patients during the outbreak of Covid-19. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was confirmed in all the patients by reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay or serologic testing.A 69-year-old man with a history of hypertension, diabetes, and stroke presented with fever, cough, dyspnea, diarrhea, and headache. Covid-19 was diagnosed in the patient on January 25, 2020, on the basis of RT-PCR testing that detected SARS-CoV-2. The initial treatment was supportive; however, the illness subsequently progressed to hypoxemic respiratory failure warranting the initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation.
COVID-19 patients exhibit differential disease severity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. It is currently unknown as to the correlation between the magnitude of neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses and the disease severity in COVID-19 patients. In a cohort of 59 recovered patients with disease severity including severe, moderate, mild, and asymptomatic, we observed the positive correlation between serum neutralizing capacity and disease severity, in particular, the highest NAb capacity in sera from the patients with severe disease, while a lack of ability of asymptomatic patients to mount competent NAbs. Furthermore, the compositions of NAb subtypes were also different between recovered patients with severe symptoms and with mild-tomoderate symptoms. These results reveal the tremendous heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2-specific NAb responses and their correlations to disease severity, highlighting the needs of future vaccination in COVID-19 patients recovered from asymptomatic or mild illness.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.