The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

No abstract

The North and South Mountains of Lanzhou City are the ecological protection barriers and an important part of the ecological system of Lanzhou City. This study takes the North and South Mountains as the study area, calculates the soil erosion modulus of the North and South Mountains of Lanzhou City based on the five major soil erosion factors in the RUSLE model, and analyses the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil erosion in the North and South Mountains of Lanzhou City and the soil erosion characteristics under different environmental factors. The results of the study show that: The intensity of soil erosion is dominated by slight erosion, which was distributed in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the North and South Mountains in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018. Under different environmental factors, the soil erosion modulus increased with elevation and then decreased; the soil erosion modulus increased with a slope; the average soil erosion modulus of grassland was the largest, followed by forest land, cultivated land, unused land, construction land, and it was the smallest for water; except for bare land, the average soil erosion modulus decreases with the increase of vegetation cover; Soil erosion modulus was the greatest in the pedocal of the North and South Mountains, and the least in the alpine soil.