Background: This article studies the relationship between the COVID-19 epidemic, public sentiment, and the volatility of infectious disease equities from the perspective of the United States. We use weekly data from January 3, 2020 to March 7, 2021. This provides a sufficient dataset for empirical analysis. Granger causality test results prove the two-way relationship between the fluctuation of infectious disease equities and confirmed cases. In addition, confirmed cases will cause the public to search for COVID-19 tests, and COVID-19 tests will also cause fluctuations in infectious disease equities, but there is no reverse correlation. The results of this research are useful to investors and policy makers. Investors can use the number of confirmed cases to predict the volatility of infectious disease equities. Similarly, policy makers can use the intervention of retrieved information to stabilize public sentiment and equity market fluctuations, and integrate a variety of information to make more scientific judgments on the trends of the epidemic.
In recent studies, numerous anomalies against the weak and semi-strong-forms of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) have been found insignificant after controlling the small-firm effect. We investigate whether the insider trading anomaly, a major anomaly against the strong-form of EMH, can survive after excluding small firms with a novel data set (FTSE-350) and document several new findings. We find a substantially larger number of insider purchases than sales, while the average volume of insider sales is much higher than the average volume of insider purchases. Echoing recent US studies, we find that insider sales generate more abnormal returns than insider purchases do. We find much lower abnormal returns from insider trading than documented in the literature and the associated trading costs, which suggests that the market efficiency of individual stocks may depend on their sizes, and even the strong-form of EMH holds to a larger extent than previously recognized.
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