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Spillovers from Conditional Cash Transfer Programs:Bolsa Família and Crime in Urban Brazil *This paper investigates the impact of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs on crime. Making use of a unique dataset combining detailed school characteristics with time and georeferenced crime information from the city of São Paulo, Brazil, we estimate the contemporaneous effect of the Bolsa Família program on crime. We address the endogeneity of CCT coverage by exploiting the 2008 expansion of the program to adolescents aged 16 and 17. We construct an instrument that combines the timing of expansion and the initial demographic composition of schools to identify plausibly exogenous variations in the number of children covered by Bolsa Família. We find a robust and significant negative impact of Bolsa Família coverage on crime. The evidence suggests that the main effect works through increased household income or changed peer group, rather than from incapacitation from time spent in school.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Terms of use: Documents inThe unauthorized commercial use of Bank documents is prohibited and may be punishable under the Bank's policies and/or applicable laws.Copyright © Inter-American Development Bank. This working paper may be reproduced for any non-commercial purpose. It may also be reproduced in any academic journal indexed by the American Economic Association's EconLit, with previous consent by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), provided that the IDB is credited and that the author(s) receive no income from the publication. This paper attempts to evaluate the impact on crime of the restriction of late-night alcohol sales in Bogota and quantify the causal effect of problematic alcohol consumption on different crime categories. It is found that the restriction reduced deaths and injuries in car accidents and batteries. The results are stronger in areas where the restriction was actually binding and are highly heterogeneous depending on the number of liquor stores restricted at the block level. Finally, the paper measures the impact of the restriction on alcohol consumption (the first stage, or mechanism), and quantifies the causal pharmacological impact of alcohol consumption on crime using the restriction as an instrument for problematic alcohol consumption (the second stage). The results indicate that a one standard deviation (s.d.) increase in problematic alcohol consumption increases deaths and injuries in car accidents by 0.51 s.d and 0.82 s.d. respectively, and batteries by 1.27 s.d. Cataloging-in-Publication JEL classifications: C2, C54, D04Keywords: Alcohol restrictions, Crime, Pharmacological channel 1 We thank the Corporación Andina para el Fomento (CAF) and the IDB Visiting Scholars Program for financial support for this paper. We wish to thank Adriana Camacho, Ximena Peña, Juan Fernando Vargas, Roman David Zárate, Angela Lulle, Ernesto Schargrodsky, Rodrigo Soares, Laura Chioda, Daniel Ortega, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the IDB and UniAndes for their comments and suggestions that helped improved this paper significantly. Also, we thank Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) for providing the crime data used in this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.2

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Terms of use: Documents inThe unauthorized commercial use of Bank documents is prohibited and may be punishable under the Bank's policies and/or applicable laws.Copyright © Inter-American Development Bank. This working paper may be reproduced for any non-commercial purpose. It may also be reproduced in any academic journal indexed by the American Economic Association's EconLit, with previous consent by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), provided that the IDB is credited and that the author(s) receive no income from the publication. This paper attempts to evaluate the impact on crime of the restriction of late-night alcohol sales in Bogota and quantify the causal effect of problematic alcohol consumption on different crime categories. It is found that the restriction reduced deaths and injuries in car accidents and batteries. The results are stronger in areas where the restriction was actually binding and are highly heterogeneous depending on the number of liquor stores restricted at the block level. Finally, the paper measures the impact of the restriction on alcohol consumption (the first stage, or mechanism), and quantifies the causal pharmacological impact of alcohol consumption on crime using the restriction as an instrument for problematic alcohol consumption (the second stage). The results indicate that a one standard deviation (s.d.) increase in problematic alcohol consumption increases deaths and injuries in car accidents by 0.51 s.d and 0.82 s.d. respectively, and batteries by 1.27 s.d. Cataloging-in-Publication JEL classifications: C2, C54, D04Keywords: Alcohol restrictions, Crime, Pharmacological channel 1 We thank the Corporación Andina para el Fomento (CAF) and the IDB Visiting Scholars Program for financial support for this paper. We wish to thank Adriana Camacho, Ximena Peña, Juan Fernando Vargas, Roman David Zárate, Angela Lulle, Ernesto Schargrodsky, Rodrigo Soares, Laura Chioda, Daniel Ortega, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the IDB and UniAndes for their comments and suggestions that helped improved this paper significantly. Also, we thank Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) for providing the crime data used in this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.2

This dissertation uses data on immigrants who live in the United States to study the eects of exposure to hyperination on occupational choice. To do so, the number of years an individual had lived under hyperination before arriving in the US is calculated. Its marginal eect on the probability of being self-employed instead of wage-earner is 0.87 percentage point. This eect depends on the age individuals had when exposed to hyperination.In particular, it is stronger for individuals who experienced hyperination at an early age, but it vanishes for those over the age of 40. These results suggest that the macroeconomic environment an individual grows up in permanently aects his economic behavior.