Understanding the factor weighting in the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) may help to predict the progression for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a confirmatory model to describe and explain the direct and indirect effect of each component in MetS status change. A total of 3581 individuals diagnosed with MetS, aged 18–102 years, were selected between January 2019 and December 2020 from a community-representative sample of Portuguese adults in a north-eastern Portuguese region to test the model’s goodness of fit. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach and a two-way ANOVA (age × body composition) were performed to compare the relative contribution of each MetS component using joint interim statement (JIS). Waist circumference (β = 0.189–0.373, p < 0.001), fasting glucose (β = 0.168–0.199, p < 0.001) and systolic blood pressure (β = 0.140–0.162, p < 0.001) had the highest direct effect on the change in MetS status in the overall population and concerning both sexes. Moreover, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), triglycerides (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) had a low or non-significant effect. Additionally, an indirect effect was reported for age and body composition involving the change in MetS status. The findings may suggest that other components with higher specificity and sensitivity should be considered to empirically validate the harmonised definition of MetS. Current research provides the first multivariate model for predicting the relative contribution of each component in the MetS status change, specifically in Portuguese adults.

The aims of this study were (1) to evaluate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a middle-aged north-eastern Portuguese population, (2) to analyze the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and (3) to assess the risk of T2D in this community-based sample. An exploratory, retrospective, and cross-sectional study was conducted from a total of 6570 individuals aged 18–102 years, among which 3865 were women (57.4 ± 18.1 years) and 2705 were men (60.0 ± 16.8 years). T2D diagnosis, IFG, and the diabetes risk score (low to very high risk) were assessed. The prevalence of T2D in this adult and an older north-eastern Portuguese population was 17.4%. A higher prevalence of T2D was reported in men (22.2%) than in women (14.0%); however, this was without significant differences (p = 0.086). Otherwise, the prevalence of T2D was significantly different among the age groups and increased with age (p < 0.001). Regarding IFG, a higher percentage of cases was observed in men (14.1%) than in women (8.4%) (p < 0.001). The risk of developing T2D in the next 10 years showed an association with sex and age group (p < 0.001) with a small-to-moderate effect (V = 0.1–0.3). Men and the elderly had the highest percentage of cases in the moderate-to-very high-risk bands. The current research confirmed a higher prevalence of T2D, IFG, and diabetes risk than previous Portuguese epidemiological reports. The results also suggest potential prediabetes cases, which should be carefully monitored. The current research adds evidence to the worldwide trend of the increasing prevalence of T2D and intermediate hyperglycemia (i.e., prediabetes).