Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress of rehabilitation and redevelopment and review the effectiveness of the Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance (LCSRO) (Cap. 545) and proposals that influence the urban renewal process in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach -The study largely relies on the review of the LCSRO and the Government's proposal, and the urban renewal progress. Rehabilitation and redevelopment data was collated and analyzed to assess how effective the renewal process and the Government legislation have been in tackling the urban decay problem in Hong Kong. This study benchmarks the good practices of Singapore. Findings -The pace of urban renewal activities in Hong Kong is lagging behind its policy goal. The implementation of the urban renewal programme has not adequately resolved the serious problem of ageing buildings. The existing legislation has not been effectively attracting private sector's participation either. The proposed relaxation of the compulsory sale threshold for specified classes of lots under the LCSRO aims to assist private sector-led redevelopment. However, it is not a panacea for urban decay. Whilst the private sector's participation is facilitated, the Government should consider complementary measures, e.g. the relaxation of such criteria as the building age, plot ratio and height limitation for a more effective and efficient process, particularly in less attractive sites. A careful balance should be maintained in redeveloping different regions in the city. The Government should also be cautious about the negative externalities that might affect to the community. Practical implications -The paper identifies the implementation gap of urban renewal in Hong Kong. Practical suggestions are made to the Government and related organizations to expedite urban renewal works. Originality/value -The paper assesses Hong Kong's urban decay problem in a quantitative way. This approach has hardly been applied in a local context. It also highlights important issues relating to private sector involvement in urban renewal activities and various concerns over the proposed changes to the LCSRO. The paper will benefit local policy makers, property developers and professionals in the area. Its results will form a basis for further research on the impact of the proposals on land supply and housing prices after its implementation.

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The size and direction of correlation between housing price movements and expectations differ between housing actors and change over time in Hong Kong. A cross-sectional market outlook survey was conducted in November 2000 to measure housing price expectations and their formation. The study challenges the traditional adaptive expectations theory and finds that the pessimistic mindset of market actors in a deflationary period was due to a lack of economic confidence - the root cause for weak expectations. It also suggests that there exist differential price expectations between different actors. Homebuyers and investors tend to be unrealistically overconfident in the long-term performance of the real estate market. Evidently, the determination of house sale prices is predominantly forward-looking, based more upon macroeconomic fundamentals than the past price trend.Expectation formation, Hong Kong, housing price expectations,

PurposeThe long‐standing urban decay problem in Hong Kong continues to receive attention from the government and concerned organisations. However, little attention is paid to the financial benefits that can be achieved after old buildings are rehabilitated. This study seeks to evaluate and quantify the value enhancement of aging buildings resulting from rehabilitation.Design/methodology/approachUsing the direct sales comparison method, the study critically examines over 80 sample buildings across Hong Kong. Residential properties with rehabilitation completed in the public sector are chosen as samples for numerical analysis.FindingsThe results show that: the capital value of the sample buildings after rehabilitation increased by an average of 35.6 percent; the overall appreciation rate of the sample buildings (35.6 percent) exceeds that of other buildings in the same district (20.8 percent); the average price increase of the sample buildings (25.7 percent after adjustment) is greater than that of Type B (40‐69.9 square meters) buildings (18.9 percent) in Hong Kong; positive growth in transaction volume is evidenced from the sample buildings in four districts; and, on average, the benefit to cost ratio of rehabilitation per unit is 10.9 and the net benefit per square foot is HK$461.4 (or US$59.2).Research limitations/implicationsThere are potential risks of error arising from the use of assumptions, price adjustments, limited sample size and data from the secondary source.Practical implicationsThe analysis is of relevance in confirming the value enhancement arising from rehabilitation and the findings provide a motive for the industry and public for rehabilitation.Originality/valueThe significance of this study is the quantification of the positive effect of rehabilitation.

This paper examines housing price trends and prediction, of homeowners and potential home buyers, and establishes an independent index (the BRE Index) based on longitudinal telephone surveys collected. The Index, first of this kind in Hong Kong, measures price expectations and benchmarks the level of housing actors confidence in the residential market. This is the first paper delivered as part of a government-funded research project. It synthesizes the key findings of the first survey mounted from 17 th to 20 th December, 2003. The results show that confidence among housing actors has begun to grow since the property crash in late 1997 with the overall BRE Index standing at 564 (0-1000 range). In general, homeowners, people with higher educational level and higher income are optimistic about the market outlook. Residential property prices are expected to rise marginally in the short term. Statistically, there is no significant difference in housing price expectations between homeowners and non-owners. In their minds, economic condition is the most important factor affecting housing decisions. Apparently, the rising trends in the immediate past have been used to form expectations. The strength of the association between actual capital gains and forecast capital gains is moderately strong, and there appears co-movement between them. This leads us to believe that hope-led expectations increase the likelihood of sustaining price increases. The current market is largely driven by expectations. If households formed their expectations in a similar manner in other periods, there would be similar positive hit results, which might render the Index more powerful.