Following up on the encouraging results of residue-residue contact prediction in the CASP11 experiment, we present the analysis of predictions submitted for CASP12. The submissions include predictions of thirty-four groups for thirty-eight domains classified as free modelling targets which are not accessible to homology-based modelling due to a lack of structural templates. CASP11 saw a rise of coevolution-based methods outperforming other approaches. The improvement of these methods coupled to machine learning and sequence database growth are most likely the main driver for a significant improvement in average precision from 27% in CASP11 to 47% in CASP12. In more than half of the targets, especially those with many homologous sequences accessible, precisions above 90% were achieved with the best predictors reaching a precision of 100% in some cases. We furthermore tested the impact of using these contacts as restraints in ab initio modelling of fourteen single-domain free modelling targets using Rosetta. Adding contacts to the Rosetta calculations resulted in improvements of up to 26% in GDT_TS within the top 5 structures.

Recently we published PROtein binDIng enerGY (PRODIGY), a web-server for the prediction of binding affinity in protein-protein complexes. By using a combination of simple structural properties, such as the residue-contacts made at the interface, PRODIGY has demonstrated a top performance compared with other state-of-the-art predictors in the literature. Here we present an extension of it, named PRODIGY-LIG, aimed at the prediction of affinity in protein-small ligand complexes. The predictive method, properly readapted for small ligand by making use of atomic instead of residue contacts, has been successfully applied for the blind prediction of 102 proteinligand complexes during the D3R Grand Challenge 2. PRODIGY-LIG has the advantage of being simple, generic and applicable to any kind of protein-ligand complex. It provides an automatic, fast and user-friendly tool ensuring broad accessibility.

We present the performance of HADDOCK, our information-driven docking software, in the second edition of the D3R Grand Challenge. In this blind experiment, participants were requested to predict the structures and binding affinities of complexes between the Farnesoid X nuclear receptor and 102 different ligands. The models obtained in Stage1 with HADDOCK and ligand-specific protocol show an average ligand RMSD of 5.1 Å from the crystal structure. Only 6/35 targets were within 2.5 Å RMSD from the reference, which prompted us to investigate the limiting factors and revise our protocol for Stage2. The choice of the receptor conformation appeared to have the strongest influence on the results. Our Stage2 models were of higher quality (13 out of 35 were within 2.5 Å), with an average RMSD of 4.1 Å. The docking protocol was applied to all 102 ligands to generate poses for binding affinity prediction. We developed a modified version of our contact-based binding affinity predictor PRODIGY, using the number of interatomic contacts classified by their type and the intermolecular electrostatic energy. This simple structure-based binding affinity predictor shows a Kendall’s Tau correlation of 0.37 in ranking the ligands (7th best out of 77 methods, 5th/25 groups). Those results were obtained from the average prediction over the top10 poses, irrespective of their similarity/correctness, underscoring the robustness of our simple predictor. This results in an enrichment factor of 2.5 compared to a random predictor for ranking ligands within the top 25%, making it a promising approach to identify lead compounds in virtual screening.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10822-017-0049-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We present SpotOn, a web server to identify and classify interfacial residues as Hot-Spots (HS) and Null-Spots (NS). SpotON implements a robust algorithm with a demonstrated accuracy of 0.95 and sensitivity of 0.98 on an independent test set. The predictor was developed using an ensemble machine learning approach with up-sampling of the minor class. It was trained on 53 complexes using various features, based on both protein 3D structure and sequence. The SpotOn web interface is freely available at: http://milou.science.uu.nl/services/SPOTON/.

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