This paper examines the role of common equity capital in determining the risk-taking behaviour of banks in South Africa. Using system GMM, the results show that higher common equity capital is associated with lower bank risk. Additionally, the results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between business cycles and bank risk, while the relationship between bank market power and risk is positive and significant. The findings remain robust after using alternative measures of bank risk. On the whole, this study recommends that an increase in common equity capital should be coupled with control of bank market power to achieve the goal of curtailing excessive risk appetite of banks.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assist bank regulators in Africa who are currently considering the implementation of Basel III countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) requirement. Design/methodology/approach Using a panel data set of 129 commercial banks operating in 14 African countries over the period 2004–2014, this paper estimates the system generalized method of moments regression to examine the impact of business cycle on banks’ regulatory capital buffers and attempts to identify the influence of bank revenue diversification, market power and cost of funding (CF) on bank regulatory capital buffers. It further carries out some robustness analyses using a panel data set of 257 commercial banks in 23 African countries over the period 2004–2014. Findings The results show that higher regulatory capital buffers are associated with higher market power, higher revenue diversification and higher CF. Additionally, the results show significant evidence of procyclical behavior of bank capital buffers (BUFs) in the sampled countries. Practical implications The results of this study suggest that African banking systems are not exposed to contagion and systemic risks arising from countercyclical movements of BUFs to the real economy. Therefore, this study does not support the implementation of the Basel III CCB requirement in the sampled African countries. Originality/value Considering that the results of existing studies on the cyclical behavior of BUFs are inconclusive, there is value in studying the cyclical movements of bank regulatory capital buffers in a set of countries that has not been analyzed before. Toward this direction, this is the first empirical study focusing on the cyclical behavior of bank regulatory capital buffers in Africa. Besides examining the cyclical behavior of bank regulatory capital buffers, this paper further investigates the effects of bank revenue diversification, market power and CF on bank regulatory capital buffers.

This paper investigates the persistence of hedge fund managers skills during periods of boom and/or recession. We consider a data set of monthly investment strategy indices published by Hedge Fund Research group. The data set spans from January 1995 to June 2010. We divide this sample period into four overlapping sub-sample periods that contain different economic cycles. We define a skilled manager as a manager who can outperform the market consistently during two consecutive sub-sample periods. We first estimate outperformance, selectivity and market timing skills using both linear and quadratic Capital Asset Pricing Model-CAPM. Persistence in performance is carried out in three different fashions: contingence table, chi-square test and cross-sectional auto-regression technique. The results show that fund managers have the skills to outperform the market during periods of positive economic growth only. This market outperformance is due to both selectivity and market timing skills. These results contradict the Efficient Market Hypothesis-EMH due to limited arbitrage opportunity.

Given the volatile nature of global financial markets, managing as well as predicting financial risk plays an increasingly important role in banking and finance. The Value at Risk (VaR) measure has emerged as the most prominent measure of downside market risk. It is measured as the alpha quantile of the profit and loss distribution. Recently a number of distributions have been proposed to model VaR: these include the extreme value theory distributions (EVT), Generalized Error Distribution (GED), Student’s t, and normal distribution. Furthermore, asymmetric as well as symmetric volatility models are combined with these distributions for out-sample VaR forecasts. This paper assesses the role of the distribution assumption and volatility specification in the accuracy of VaR estimates using daily closing prices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index (JSE ALSI). It is found that Student’s t distribution combined with asymmetric volatility models produces VaR estimates in out-sample periods that outperform those from models stemming from normal, EVT/symmetric volatility specification.

This paper uses the genetic algorithm (GA) approach to generate a portfolio optimisation scenario of a South African investor who seeks to maximise return from investing in S&P500, FTSE100, NASDAQ, DOWJONES, CAC40 and the DAX from January 1, 2005, to January 31, 2008, but facing exchange rate risk. The GA searches for the optimal solution in the entire set of financial constraints without looking for partial derivatives of the utility function. Whereas most financial problems require a non‐linear and time‐varying model, the GA, with its survival principle of offspring chromosomes, is better suited to this type of problem than local optimisation methods. The performance of the GA is compared with two non‐linear models, namely the quadratic mean‐variance (QMV), which maximises the portfolio mean‐variance, and the quadratic variance minimisation (QVM), which minimises the portfolio variance. The results show that neither the QMV nor the QVM takes into account the domestic investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities and therefore does not provide any international diversification benefits. In addition, the bootstrapping scenario of 10,000 simulations reveals that neither the QMV nor the QVM outperforms the GA in terms of Sharpe ratio and flexibility in dealing with investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities denominated in foreign currencies.