Background
Systemic inflammation plays a critical role in cancer progression and oncologic outcomes in cancer patients. We investigated whether preoperative inflammatory biomarkers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), could be surrogate biomarkers for predicting overall survival (OS) in soft tissue sarcoma (STS) patients treated with surgery and postoperative radiotherapy.
Methods
A series of 99 patients who presented with localized extremity STS were retrospectively reviewed. The preoperative CRP levels, ESR, and NLR were evaluated for associations with OS, disease-free survival (DFS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Cutoff values for CRP, ESR, and NLR were derived from receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.
Results
Elevated CRP (> 0.14 mg/dL), ESR (> 15 mm/h), and NLR (> 1.95) levels were seen in 33, 44, and 45 patients, respectively. Of these three inflammatory biomarkers, elevated CRP and ESR were associated with a poorer OS (CRP:
P
= 0.050; ESR:
P
= 0.001), DFS (CRP:
P
= 0.023; ESR:
P
= 0.003), and DMFS (CRP:
P
= 0.015; ESR:
P
= 0.001). By multivariate analysis, an elevated ESR was found to be an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR 3.580,
P
= 0.025) and DMFS (HR 3.850,
P
= 0.036) after adjustment for other established prognostic factors.
Conclusions
The preoperative ESR level is a simple and useful surrogate biomarker for predicting survival outcomes in STS patients and might improve the identification of high-risk patients of tumor relapse in clinical practice.
Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most professional sports events have been held without spectators. It is generally believed that home teams deprived of enthusiastic support from their home fans experience reduced benefits of playing on their home fields, thus becoming less likely to win. This study attempts to confirm if this belief is true in four major European football leagues through statistical analysis. This study proposes a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model to estimate parameters reflecting the home advantage and the change in such advantage. These parameters are used to improve the performance of machine-learning-based prediction models for football matches played after the COVID-19 break. The study describes the statistical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on football match results in terms of the expected score and goal difference. It also shows that estimated parameters from the proposed model reflect the changed home advantage. Finally, the study verifies that these parameters, when included as additional features, enhance the performance of various football match prediction models. The home advantage in European football matches has changed because of the behind-closed-doors policy implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using parameters reflecting the pandemic’s impact, it is possible to predict more precise results of spectator-free matches after the COVID-19 break.
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