<p class="Resumen">Latinoamérica presenta una alta disponibilidad y un elevado volumen de recurso hídrico. Este hecho, combinado con una abrupta topografía, permite generar importantes aprovechamientos hidroeléctricos con estructuras relativamente reducidas, lo que ha hecho proliferar este tipo de explotaciones. De manera reciente, sin embargo, ha comenzado a manifestarse inquietud respecto a los efectos que el cambio climático pueda tener sobre las centrales hidroeléctricas, y cómo esto pueda afectar a la disponibilidad y distribución de energía eléctrica en los distintos países. En el presente trabajo presentamos la metodología y principales resultados obtenidos en el estudio Vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y medidas de adaptación de sistemas hidroeléctricos en países andinos que ha cubierto los sistemas hidroeléctricos de Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. Focalizaremos nuestros esfuerzos en el análisis del recurso hídrico, paso previo al análisis de la evolución del recurso hidroeléctrico, a nivel regional, donde se han generado unas bases de datos homogéneas para toda el área de estudio mediante reconstrucción temporal y espacial, haciendo uso de técnicas de krigeado. También se ha procedido a homogeneizar la información sobre tipos de suelo y usos del suelo. La hidrología se ha resuelto con el modelo hidrológico semidistribuido VIC. Se ha analizado el periodo histórico 1980-2010, y se han generado proyecciones de cambio climático para el corto plazo (2011-2040), el medio plazo (2041-2070) y el largo plazo (2071-2100) para los escenarios RCP4.5 y RCP8.5 utilizados en el 5° informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental para el Cambio Climático). Se ha tenido en cuenta además la posible evolución socioeconómica y su impacto sobre los usos del suelo.</p>
<p>The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a&#160;Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)&#160;contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.</p><p>Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.</p><p>For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.</p><p>The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.</p><p>Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Espa&#241;ola de Cambio Clim&#225;tico.</p>
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